066
FXUS63 KTOP 231133
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
633 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED (60%-80%) TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
- THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS COULD BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL UP TO
QUARTERS.
- SEASONAL WEATHER IS FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S. THERE IS A 30%-50% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER 30% TO 50%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL CANADA, WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS ID, EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL CA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL US.
AT 7Z, A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL MN, SOUTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHEAST NE, SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST KS, THEN
SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CO ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL NE.
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT:
THE H5 TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA, THAT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO WESTERN ONTARIO, CANADA. THE STRONGER
MID-LEVEL JET WILL TRACK NORTHEAST IN THE BASE OF THE H5 TROUGH
ACROSS NORTHERN MN INTO ONTARIO, CANADA. THE SOUTHERN STREAM H5
TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS CA INTO NV AND WESTERN AZ. THE
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NE WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST NE AND NORTH CENTRAL KS, THEN WESTWARD INTO EASTERN
CO. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM EASTERN NE, SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL KS. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL KS. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF A SLN TO STJ LINE, WHICH WOULD
COVER MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KS.THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA MAY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
IN THE WARN SECTOR SINCE THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A CAPPING
INVERSION. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, MLCAPE WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 2000 J/KG, WITH WEAKER EFFECTIVE SHEAR BELOW 20 KTS AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE FRONT. SO, I DON'T EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS
WITH MID LEVEL ROTATION FOR LARGE HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY MODE OF
CONVECTION WILL BE PULSE STORMS THAT MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND POSSIBLY HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. THE STORMS WILL
WEAKEN A BIT AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KS DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HREF ENSEMBLES SHOW A 50% PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING 2 OR MORE
INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS. GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A MINNEAPOLIS TO SENECA LINE, SO THERE COULD BE SOME
MINOR FLOODING.
HIGHS ACROSS HE CWA WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S, WITH
HEAT INDICIES IN THE 96-103 DEGREE RANGE. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
HEAT INDICIES AT OR JUST BELOW 100 DEGREES. THERE MAY BE A
CORRIDOR ALONG I-70 THAT MAY HAVE SOME HEAT INDICIES OF 100 TO
103.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST US WILL FILL AS IT SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US WILL BUILD
WESTWARD INTO TX. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY, AS THE SURFACE FRONT
RETREATS NORTHWARD INTO NE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BETTER
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FILLING H5 TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS NE, ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WEDNESDAY
MAY BE DRY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
AND HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, PERHAPS AROUND 100
DEGREE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS. AN H5 PERTURBATIONS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS KS ON THURSDAY, BRINING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE WEAK H5 PERTURBATION WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. THE UPPER
FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MINOR PERTURBATIONS
MAY PROVIDE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY, THEN DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH RIVER
VALLEY ON MONDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST KS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY LOOKS COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
THE KMHK AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE TOP AND FOE
TERMINALS AROUND 3Z AND MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT WILL DIMINISH
A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE FRONT MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF MHK
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY, SWITCHING WINDS TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...GARGAN
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