421
FXUS63 KTOP 241730
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER THIS MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS
COULD REDEVELOP (20-40%) DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH A
FEW PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
- WARM WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
BEFORE A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN NEXT MONDAY. PERIODIC STORM CHANCES
OCCUR IN THE MEANTIME AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CA. A SHORTER WAVE LENGTH
TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE THE
EAST CENTRAL US.
THE 9Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN WI,
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL IA INTO NORTHEAST KS, THEN SOUTHWEST
TO I-70 NEAR SLN. THE FRONT THEN EXTENDED WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO
EASTERN CO. A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THE FRONT IS
BEGINNING TO STALL OUT ACROSS KS.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US WILL FILL AS IF LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z THU. THE SURFACE FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL KS WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO NE AND IA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GREATER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF I-70 TODAY. EAST CENTRAL KS MAY
SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BUT AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH THE BETTER SURFACE
CONVERGENCE FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. I
CANNOT RULE OUT ANY OFB FORMING AND PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO EAST
CENTRAL KS, WHICH COULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE AGAIN THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CWA WITH MLCAPES OF 1400-2000 J/KG BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR LESS THAN 25 KTS. THERE MAY BE A FEW PULSE STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS NORTH OF I-70, WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARD BEING ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEDNESDAY MAY BE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE SURFACE FRONT
SHIFTING NORTH OF THE CWA ACROSS EASTERN NE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH
MORE INSOLATION. HEAT INDICIES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND
100 DEGREES BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
THE LOW-AMPLITUDE H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS KS. THE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH COMBINED
WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH
MOVES EAST INTO NORTHERN MO AND IA, EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, THE
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCE SHOULD END. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICIES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS TX. MINOR PERTURBATION
WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS BUT THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOW MOST OF
THE STRONGER ASCENT REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA, SO WE MAY SEE MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. HIGHS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HEAT
INDICES THIS WEEKEND WILL INCREASE A BIT WITH AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-70 HEAT INDICES REACHING TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
AN H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY
THEN AMPLIFY AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES STATES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF MODEL IS A BIT FASTER MOVING THE FRONT
THROUGH BY MONDAY MORNING AND SHOWS THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS
MODEL IS A BIT SLOWER MOVING THE FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. IF THE
GFS WERE TO VERIFY OUR BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY:
THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND MINOR PERTURBATIONS
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAY PROVIDE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL. THE MAIN THING TO WATCH
FOR THIS PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW REDEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD IMPACT TAF SITES BEFORE
THEY MOVE NORTH. CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT IMPACTS TO TERMINALS ISN'T
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN A PREVAILING GROUP DUE TO THE STORMS'
SCATTERED NATURE, BUT IF STORMS DO MOVE INTO THOSE LOCATIONS,
THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS MAINLY UNDER 10 KTS WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...PICHA
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