277
FXUS63 KTOP 251942
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
242 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MARGINAL
SEVERE WEATHER RISK, WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL, AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
- STAYING SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S. MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST MINOR (20-40%) SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.
- COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGS HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (40-
70%) AND KNOCKS HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
WARM BUT QUIET CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE STRONG
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS IN CONTROL. WITH DEWPOINTS
AROUND 70 AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S, HEAT INDICES ARE ONCE
AGAIN APPROACHING 100. BY TOMORROW, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY
SOME AS A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT BY MID/LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, EXPANDING EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT IS A TYPICAL ONE FOR LATE JUNE, WITH WEAK
SHEAR, MODERATE INSTABILITY, AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER. SO
EXPECTING A TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE'VE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. INITIAL PULSE AND MULTI-
CELL STORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF 1" OR LESS HAIL THREAT, BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS STORMS CONGEAL
AND GROW UPSCALE. GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND SLOW
STORM MOTIONS, SOME LOCAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD RISK WILL OCCUR
AGAIN, WHERE ISOLATED PLACES COULD SEE 2-4" OF RAIN. MOST PLACES
THOUGH WILL RECEIVE AROUND OR BELOW 1" OF BENEFICIAL RAIN. AS
INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL WANE BY MID-EVENING, WITH
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT ENDING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THE FRONT LARGELY WASHES OUT BY FRIDAY, AS THE MAIN JET STREAM
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND STAYS LARGELY TO OUR NORTH. SO LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS STAY
IN THE LOW 90S EACH AFTERNOON, WITH HEAT INDICES NEARING 100. NO
OBVIOUS SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION, BUT WITH A MOIST AND UNCAPPED
AIRMASS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL SEEM POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES DO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING
SOME MINOR RELIEF TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS STAY MORE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S, WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH JUST SOME CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD STAY NORTHWEST OF KMHK THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WINDS STAY GENERALLY 8-12 KTS FROM THE SOUTH, SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DURING THE DAY AND WEAKER AT NIGHT.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...REESE
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