184
FXUS63 KTOP 270827
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
327 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
- A MODIFIED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING
BRINGING UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO 60-70%. COULD SEE A
WINDOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS BRINGING
DAMAGING WIND, SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE MEAN WESTERLIES CONTINUE TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. A VERY
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ACROSS THE AREA AND IS ONLY WEAKLY
DEFINED MAINLY BY A WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM
NORTHEAST KS INTO CENTRAL AREAS. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF IMPORTANCE
FOR SUNDAY IS CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
WITH A WARM HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE, EXPECT HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE WEAK WASHED OUT
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA, THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE TO NO CAP
COMBINE TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO TO
DEVELOP. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS RIGHT NOW WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY REGIONS. AS THE MODIFIED COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
AREA, THERE COULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS FOR A FEW
HOURS BY SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LITTLE SHEAR OR FORCING
APPEAR TO BE ESTABLISHED WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH/SHORTWAVE DISPLACED
NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, STRONG INSTABILITY WITH THE HEATING OF
THE DAY AND 90TH PERCENTILE PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO FORM. THESE
WOULD BE SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS WITH IMPACTS MOSTLY FOCUSED ON
DAMAGING WINDS TO AROUND 60MPH AS STORMS COLLAPSE. THEN INTO THE
EVENING AS STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW, THEN THERE COULD BE A
LOW-END FLASH FLOOD RISK AGAIN AS WELL.
ONLY A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AFTER THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BUT EVEN SO,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMS AND STILL WARM AND HUMID
OVERALL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
A FEW MID CLOUDS REMAIN AS SHOWERS EXIT EAST OF THE TERMINALS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING
AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY BUT REMAIN GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10KTS. COULD SEE A FEW MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR A
BRIEF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...DRAKE
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