179
FXUS63 KTOP 280851
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
351 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID PATTERN CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. DAMAGING WINDS, SMALL HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
A VERY MOIST BUT WEAK FLOW REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. A WEAK WAVE WAS EVIDENT ACROSS NORTHEAST OK
WHERE ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING. THE SURFACE
PATTERN FEATURED A SOMEWHAT UNIFORM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA WITH NO OBVIOUS BOUNDARIES APPARENT. FOR TODAY, EXPECT A
NEAR PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH MORNING SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AND SOME OF THOSE MAY DRIFT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING OR INTO THE
AFTERNOON. 500MB HEIGHTS DO SHOW MODEST RISES TODAY SO EXPECT
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO BE ISOLATED. HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST TO MID 90S CENTRAL.
TONIGHT A 30-35KT LLJ SHOULD DEVELOP AND GENERATE LIFT/WAA AND
IN TURN SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA. SHEAR REMAINS WEAK SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY A FRONT WILL DROP INTO SOUTHERN NE WITH A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS KS. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SURGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
MODEST SHEAR BUT EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS LINE SEGMENTS BOW
OUT AND ACCELERATE SOUTH INTO THE EVENING.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT
COVERAGE DOESN'T LOOK SUFFICIENT TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...OMITT
AVIATION...OMITT
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