602
FXUS63 KTOP 281736
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1236 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID PATTERN CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. DAMAGING WINDS, SMALL HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
A VERY MOIST BUT WEAK FLOW REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. A WEAK WAVE WAS EVIDENT ACROSS NORTHEAST OK
WHERE ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING. THE SURFACE
PATTERN FEATURED A SOMEWHAT UNIFORM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA WITH NO OBVIOUS BOUNDARIES APPARENT. FOR TODAY, EXPECT A
NEAR PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH MORNING SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AND SOME OF THOSE MAY DRIFT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING OR INTO THE
AFTERNOON. 500MB HEIGHTS DO SHOW MODEST RISES TODAY SO EXPECT
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO BE ISOLATED. HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST TO MID 90S CENTRAL.
TONIGHT A 30-35KT LLJ SHOULD DEVELOP AND GENERATE LIFT/WAA AND
IN TURN SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA. SHEAR REMAINS WEAK SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY A FRONT WILL DROP INTO SOUTHERN NE WITH A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS KS. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SURGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
MODEST SHEAR BUT EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS LINE SEGMENTS BOW
OUT AND ACCELERATE SOUTH INTO THE EVENING.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
LINGERING STRATUS CONTINUES TO IMPACT KTOP AND KFOE, BOUNCING
FROM SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR DECKS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED. THERE WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE (~10%) OF A POP UP STORM THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR ALL TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL KS. ADDED MENTION OF A
PROB30 GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE AT KTOP AND KFOE, BUT KEPT OUT
MENTION AT KMHK DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN WESTWARD EXTENT OF
STORMS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...OMITT
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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