650
FXUS63 KTOP 291914
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
214 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME MAY BE SEVERE PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- HOT CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND INDEPENDENCE DAY THOUGH NOT
LOOKING EXTREME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 35 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS
STABILIZED MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S AND CIRRUS BLOWOFF OVERHEAD. RICH SURFACE
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER/NEAR NORTHWEST KANSAS LONG THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT.
WILL KEEP SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN PLACE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE NEARBY AND LATE JUNE INSOLATION RETURNING,
BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO FROM WELL WEST AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS KANSAS OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SEEN IN RECENT HRRR RUNS AND THE
12Z NSSL-MPAS RUNS THAT HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE EARLY-DAY
CONVECTION. MUCAPE VALUES VARY, BUT A FEW THOUSAND J/KG SEEM LIKELY
WITH MODEST A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET UPSTREAM AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES SUPPORTING A SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
RECENT HRRR RUNS ALSO SUGGEST SOME LOCALLY-DEVELOPING STORMS IN
APPARENT WARM-AIR ADVECTION OVER THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER
SUNSET. THE ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL AREAS FROM TODAY WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR FLOODING, BUT A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM OVERALL SEEMS
FAVORED TO LIMIT FLOODING CONCERNS. AN UPPER WAVE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD SHOVE THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY AND HIGHER PW AIRMASS SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY FOR DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN FOR THE NEXT FEW PERIODS.
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW RETURNS IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE ROCKIES FOR WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS AROUND THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN THOUGH CAPPING
MAY AGAIN BE PRESENT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MUTED.
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS, WITH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION COMING IN
FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z. WENT WITH A PROB MENTION FOR NOW. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AND BACK AS CONDITIONS RETURN TO MORE
SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...POAGE
AVIATION...POAGE
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