048
FXUS63 KTOP 061117 AAA
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
617 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-35
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST MO INTO EASTERN
KS WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHEAST KS THIS MORNING. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE 925-850MB
BOUNDARY WAS ACTING TO KEEP WIDELY SCATTERED T-STORMS ONGOING
THIS MORNING. THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE BOUNDARIES THIS MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON THE SFC FRONT
SHOULD BE LOCATED CLOSER TO I-35 WHERE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD OCCUR. WEAK SHEAR AND MODEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LIMIT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WX RISK
TODAY.
TONIGHT...ORGANIZED FORCING FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE AN MCS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE
SOUTH. 850MB WINDS ARE WEAK ACROSS THIS PART OF THE STATE AND
ANY PRECIP CHCS ACROSS CENTRAL KS WOULD BE WITH A WEAKENING
SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT SO LOW PRECIP CHCS WERE KEPT THERE.
MONDAY-TUES...EXPECT MORE SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS MONDAY AS THE
WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE AREA. THERE'S A BETTER CHANCE FOR
NIGHTTIME STORMS TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF NE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES
AND IMPACT AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WHATEVER OCCURS TUESDAY MORNING COULD IMPACT HOW ANY
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS WOULD PLAY OUT TUES AFTERNOON SO
CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME
DESPITE THE MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC.
THERE MAY BE A BREAK WEDS BEFORE A STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THAT SYSTEM MAY BRING ANOTHER RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY THU OR FRI. ALL IN ALL AN ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE FOR JULY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 MPH WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES TODAY.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...OMITT
AVIATION...OMITT
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