991
FXUS63 KTOP 061706
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1206 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-35
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST MO INTO EASTERN
KS WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHEAST KS THIS MORNING. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE 925-850MB
BOUNDARY WAS ACTING TO KEEP WIDELY SCATTERED T-STORMS ONGOING
THIS MORNING. THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE BOUNDARIES THIS MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON THE SFC FRONT
SHOULD BE LOCATED CLOSER TO I-35 WHERE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD OCCUR. WEAK SHEAR AND MODEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LIMIT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WX RISK
TODAY.
TONIGHT...ORGANIZED FORCING FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE AN MCS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE
SOUTH. 850MB WINDS ARE WEAK ACROSS THIS PART OF THE STATE AND
ANY PRECIP CHCS ACROSS CENTRAL KS WOULD BE WITH A WEAKENING
SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT SO LOW PRECIP CHCS WERE KEPT THERE.
MONDAY-TUES...EXPECT MORE SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS MONDAY AS THE
WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE AREA. THERE'S A BETTER CHANCE FOR
NIGHTTIME STORMS TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF NE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES
AND IMPACT AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WHATEVER OCCURS TUESDAY MORNING COULD IMPACT HOW ANY
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS WOULD PLAY OUT TUES AFTERNOON SO
CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME
DESPITE THE MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC.
THERE MAY BE A BREAK WEDS BEFORE A STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THAT SYSTEM MAY BRING ANOTHER RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY THU OR FRI. ALL IN ALL AN ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE FOR JULY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. COULD BE A COUPLE HOURS OF MOSTLY GROUND FOG ACROSS LOW
LYING AREAS AROUND SUNRISE. BEST CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG REMAIN
GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. A LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZE
REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OR A STORM TOO SMALL TO MENTION WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN
SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...OMITT
AVIATION...DRAKE
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