399
FXUS63 KTOP 082309
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
609 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON FOR A SHOWER OR STORM OVER EAST-
CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SHOULD BE
VERY ISOLATED IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP AROUND A 15% OR LESS CHANCE.
- COULD BE A WEAKENING COMPLEX OF STORMS INTO THE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS WEDNESDAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-70.
- THE HEAT INDICES REACH AROUND 100 DEGREES AGAIN THURSDAY. LOOKS TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME.
- BEST CHANCE (40-60%) FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS OR STORMS APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME
WHEN A MODIFIED COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND FRIDAY'S COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
A SUMMERTIME PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A DEPARTING TROUGH
ADVANCING EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH PORTIONS OF
THE MID MS VALLEY. A LARGE ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH OVER WESTERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. NEAR THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REGION, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
STRETCHED SOUTH OF THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN MO INTO NORTHERN OK INTO
SOUTHWESTERN KS AREAS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF RECOVERY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH REMNANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
STEEPENED AND INHIBITION CONTINUES TO DECREASE. WITH A CU FIELD
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL KS, COULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO GENERALLY THROUGH SUNSET
THIS EVENING. HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AROUND 15% OR LESS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TOO MUCH DEVELOPMENT TAKING SHAPE.
WITH THE RIDGE APEX INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME IS IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER AREA
OVER THE BLACK HILLS OF SD. THE AREA OF DEVELOPMENT OVER SD IS OF
IMPORTANCE THIS CYCLE BECAUSE MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
MESOSCALE STORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE RESULTING MOTION OF MCS
FEATURES. SHOULD THE STORMS OVER SD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP, THEY COULD
CONGEAL INTO A COMPLEX AND RIDE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AND ENTER THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING TO TO MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. IF THE STRENGTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF UPDRAFTS CAN BE
MAINTAINED, THERE COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO ACCOMPANY
THESE STORMS. THE PROBABILITY OF THIS IS OVERALL LOW SO EXPECTING A
LOW CHANCE ANY STORMS MAKE IT TO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW HAVE ANOTHER
15% OR LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE EARLY MORNING
TOMORROW GENERALLY ALONG THE HWY 36 CORRIDOR.
HEAT BUILDS INTO THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE PIVOTS EAST MORE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. THE THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD POSITION 20-25C H85 TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION, WHICH WILL HELP PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES TO AROUND 100
DEGREES F AREA-WIDE. OVERALL, THIS SHOULD BE A SHORT LASTING
DURATION OF INCREASED HEAT ACROSS THE AREA AND SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS
ANTICIPATED FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO REVISE THE FORECAST AS NEEDED
FOR THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD AN ADVISORY BE WARRANTED.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A MODIFIED COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE AREA
SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD INCREASE RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES. THE BEST DYNAMICS MAY STILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF THE
REGION, SO UNCERTAIN ON HOW MUCH SEVERE WEATHER MAY RESULT BUT
CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEANINGFUL AND MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS MUCH NEEDED AT
THIS POINT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, EXPECT A NICE AND NOTICEABLE COOL
DOWN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S WHICH WILL FEEL
REFRESHING AFTER SEVERAL HOT DAYS THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
MINIMAL CHANGES TO VFR TAFS WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT OUT OF
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LIGHT
WINDS SHIFT A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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