101
FXUS63 KTOP 110821
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
321 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE HOT DAY TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 ALONG/SOUTH OF I-
70.
- COLD FRONT TIMING THIS EVENING IS SLIGHTLY FASTER, BUT STILL
EXPECTING SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP, MOST LIKELY ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL KS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
- A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY, BUT OTHERWISE A
COOLER WEEKEND BEFORE HEAT BUILDS AGAIN FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED LEAD
SHORTWAVE IS PRESENT OVER IOWA, WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE BACK OVER
WESTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. A THIRD, BROADER SHORTWAVE IS FARTHER
TO THE NORTHWEST OVER MONTANA. AT THE SURFACE, A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW
IS PRESENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING TO
THE SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHANGE IS TO BRING THIS
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING A FEW HOURS FASTER AND MORE
POSITIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL KEEP CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SLIGHTLY WEAKER, SO HAVE BUMPED POPS DOWN A BIT THIS EVENING.
EVEN STILL, WITH A HOT AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, DO EXPECT SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL KS. WITH AROUND
2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND 20 KTS OF SHEAR, ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT,
THOUGH SOME SMALL HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALSO
LOOK LOWER WITH THE FASTER FRONTAL SPEED AND LOWER STORM COVERAGE,
THOUGH ANY STORM COULD STILL DUMP SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN.
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY. EXACT
HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER, BUT SOMEWHERE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S SEEMS REASONABLE. WE WILL SEE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR A
BRIEF SHOWER OR STORMS AS THE MONTANA SHORTWAVE BRINGS A WEAK
SECONDARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEFLY DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS
SECONDARY FRONT AND RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY DAY
ON SUNDAY.
WE RETURN TO A WARMER, QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 90S, WHILE A MOIST AND
MOSTLY UNCAPPED WILL KEEP SOME LOW SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AROUND.
BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
TO APPROACH BY SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WHICH WOULD AGAIN
BRING SOME DRIER AIR AND DROP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S.
HOWEVER TOUGH TO BE TOO CONFIDENT IN A DAY 6 COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF KMHK WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO KTOP/KFOE.
HERE, BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS TOMORROW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS VEER FROM SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SWITCHING TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND IT.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...REESE
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