077  
FXUS63 KTOP 111110  
AFDTOP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
610 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- ONE MORE HOT DAY TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 ALONG/SOUTH OF I-  
70.  
 
- COLD FRONT TIMING THIS EVENING IS SLIGHTLY FASTER, BUT STILL  
EXPECTING SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP, MOST LIKELY ACROSS EAST-  
CENTRAL KS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.  
 
- A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY, BUT OTHERWISE A  
COOLER WEEKEND BEFORE HEAT BUILDS AGAIN FIRST HALF OF NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED LEAD  
SHORTWAVE IS PRESENT OVER IOWA, WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE BACK OVER  
WESTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. A THIRD, BROADER SHORTWAVE IS FARTHER  
TO THE NORTHWEST OVER MONTANA. AT THE SURFACE, A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW  
IS PRESENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING TO  
THE SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHANGE IS TO BRING THIS  
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING A FEW HOURS FASTER AND MORE  
POSITIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL KEEP CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT SLIGHTLY WEAKER, SO HAVE BUMPED POPS DOWN A BIT THIS EVENING.  
EVEN STILL, WITH A HOT AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT, DO EXPECT SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE  
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL KS. WITH AROUND  
2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND 20 KTS OF SHEAR, ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS  
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STEEP  
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT,  
THOUGH SOME SMALL HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALSO  
LOOK LOWER WITH THE FASTER FRONTAL SPEED AND LOWER STORM COVERAGE,  
THOUGH ANY STORM COULD STILL DUMP SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN.  
 
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY. EXACT  
HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER, BUT SOMEWHERE IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 80S SEEMS REASONABLE. WE WILL SEE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR A  
BRIEF SHOWER OR STORMS AS THE MONTANA SHORTWAVE BRINGS A WEAK  
SECONDARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEFLY DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS  
SECONDARY FRONT AND RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY DAY  
ON SUNDAY.  
 
WE RETURN TO A WARMER, QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF  
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 90S, WHILE A MOIST AND  
MOSTLY UNCAPPED WILL KEEP SOME LOW SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AROUND.  
BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT  
TO APPROACH BY SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WHICH WOULD AGAIN  
BRING SOME DRIER AIR AND DROP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S.  
HOWEVER TOUGH TO BE TOO CONFIDENT IN A DAY 6 COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY  
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
 
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE AFTERNOON INTO  
THE EARLY EVENING, SWITCHING WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AS IT  
PASSES. A FEW SCATTERED STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME  
ALONG THE FRONT, MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF KTOP/KFOE. CEILINGS STAY  
VFR, WITH JUST A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS AT THE VERY  
END OF THE PERIOD.  
 
 
   
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...REESE  
AVIATION...REESE  
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