825
FXUS63 KTOP 301726
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1226 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MAX HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES TOWARDS FAR EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER HIGHS IN THE 80S NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.
- NON-SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING CLEARING TO THE EAST.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE AFTERNOON, CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- COOLER TEMPS AND LOW CHANCE POPS BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM
THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
SOUTHWEST TROUGHING ALOFT THIS MORNING IS INFLUENCING THE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM NE AND IA, INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
KANSAS. WARMING 700 MB TEMPS AND NO PROMINENT LLJ SUGGEST SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TOWARDS THE EAST BY SUNRISE. THE
COLD FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS TO SOUTHEAST NE REMAINS ON TRACK TO
SURGE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. LATEST RUNS FROM THE HRRR
AND RAP SUGGEST THICKER CLOUD COVER AND A QUICKER PROGRESSION OF CAA
BEHIND THE FRONT, LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS NORTH OF I-70.
SOUTH OF I-70, HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE ANTICIPATED WITH HEAT
INDICES FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
FAR EAST CENTRAL AREAS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE 105
DEGREES.
CONFIDENCE IN STORMS LOCATION AND COVERAGE FORMING IN THE AFTERNOON
IS MEDIUM BASED ON LACK OF AN UPPER TROUGH, STILL PROGGED TO REMAIN
TO THE NORTHWEST. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ALONG WITH UNCAPPED SFC BL LENDS TO KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
STORMS AS THE FRONT POSITIONS ITSELF WEST TO EAST NEAR OR SOUTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE 4000+ J/KG OF SFC CAPE AND 20-30 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR PRESENT, A STRONGER STORM CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS
FROM 50-60 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS SCENARIO IS MOST LIKELY IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING, HIGHEST
SOUTH OF I-70 AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
OVERNIGHT.
COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SFC RIDGE AXIS SETTLES CLOSER TO THE
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NBM ON COOLER HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 60, LIKELY INTO THE 50S FOR LOW
LYING AREAS. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS AN EMBEDDED VORT
MAX ENTERS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SAT. NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLES WITH THE MAIN QUESTION AS TO
QPF AND CONVECTION COVERAGE. FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN AFTER SUNDAY
WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES BRINGING POSSIBLE PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AND WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
MAIN AVIATION HAZARD TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. MOST WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND MOVE EAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. WITH CONFIDENCE HIGHEST FOR CONVECTION TO STAY JUST
SOUTH OF TERMINALS, OPTED TO CONTINUE PROB30 FOR CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THURSDAY MORNING AND EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ056-KSZ058-
KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...PRIETO
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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