709
FXUS63 KTOP 310755
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
255 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS ENDING THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIRMASS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND, MOST
PROBABLE EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
UPPER RIDGE AXIS HOLDS OVER THE CO ROCKIES THIS MORNING AS MULTIPLE
PERTURBATIONS ARE NOTED TRAVERSING THE PLAINS REGION. THE SYSTEM
THAT IMPACTED THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXITING SOUTHEAST, ALONG
WITH THE CLUSTER OF STORMS INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. UPSTREAM OBS
DEPICT SOME CLEARING OVER NORTH CENTRAL AREAS, EXPECTED TO FILL IN
WITH STRATUS LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY SCATTERING FROM
WEST TO EAST. COOLER AIR FILTERS THROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT, DROPPING
HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. SFC RIDGE AXIS CENTERS CLOSE TO
FAR NORTHERN KANSAS BY FRIDAY, COOLING HIGHS DOWN TO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S.
SEVERAL UPPER, EMBEDDED VORT MAXES BEGIN TO ENTER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION REACHES NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING,
INCREASING POPS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AMONGST
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE GFS AND EC WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF
EMBEDDED TROUGH AND TIMING OF STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE SAT EVENING-
SUN EVENING TIME FRAME. HIGHEST POPS ARE FOCUSED WHERE INITIAL
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KS IS MOST LIKELY IN NORTH CENTRAL KS. DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SPREADS WELL INTO THE REGION. HIGHS GRADUALLY WARM INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
VFR AT TERMINALS TO BEGIN FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR STRATUS IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP BEHIND A PASSING BOUNDARY AFT 12Z, MOVING
SOUTHWARD BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING AND SCATTERING TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE AROUND 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON,
WEAKENING THIS EVENING.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PRIETO
AVIATION...PRIETO
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