756
FXUS63 KTOP 011052
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
552 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
- DRY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE MIDWEST AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS ALLOWED SOME
HIGHER CONCENTRATIONS OF SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES TO REACH THE
AREA AND REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY HAS BEEN NOTED ON REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS. THE HRRR SHOWS THE HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF NEAR-
SURFACE SMOKE IS PUSHED EAST THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER MAXIMUM
OF NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT FROM THE SMOKE, BUT IT
COULD LEAD TO REDUCED AIR QUALITY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW-NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY!
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS, LEADING TO
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (<10%) FOR A STRAY SHOWER
ON SATURDAY BEFORE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, HIGHEST (30-60% CHANCE) ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ANOTHER WAVE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SEVERE
WEATHER IS UNLIKELY AS INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK, ESPECIALLY WITH
EASTERN EXTENT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW-NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS. ENERGY ROUNDING THE RIDGE COULD LEAD TO OCCASIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION
ARE LOW AT THIS RANGE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
VSBY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 5-6 SM DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW LONG THIS REDUCTION TO
VSBY WILL LAST, BUT THINK THERE COULD BE IMPROVEMENT AS MIXING
ENSUES THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
EASTERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
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