684
FXUS63 KTOP 020534
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1234 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HAZY SKIES
FROM DISTANT WILDFIRE SMOKE GRADUALLY IMPROVE.
- BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS COMES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, HIGHEST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS.
- NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO KEEP STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW LOCKED IN
PLACE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
AUGUST, STILL HOVERING IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AS OF 2 PM. BACKWARD
TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SOURCE REGION FOR THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IS ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE HAZY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION, AS SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE HIGH HAS TRANSPORTED
WILDFIRE SMOKE TOWARDS THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT
STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES AND AIR QUALITY. SOME SMOKE MAY
LINGER HIGHER IN THE SKY THOUGH, AS UPPER FLOW FROM AN APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TEND TO DIRECT SMOKE PLUMES FROM
UTAH/COLORADO FIRES EASTWARD.
THIS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING OUR NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN KS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS SATURDAY EVENING AND GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. GIVEN STEADY ISENTROPIC ASCENT, THINK SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME THUNDER WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH
INSTABILITY DOES DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH EASTERN EXTENT. A FEW STORMS
COULD REDEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING SUNDAY, LASTING INTO THE LATE
EVENING. THIS THOUGH WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON REMNANT BOUNDARIES
FROM OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. AT THE SURFACE, WE'LL CONTINUE TO HAVE
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH MONDAY. WITH LITTLE WAA, THE
ANOMALOUSLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND - HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
LOWS NEAR 60.
WE DO LOOK TO SEE A WARMING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, STRETCHING
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. GIVEN OUR POSITION ON THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, WE MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH. PREDICTABILITY THOUGH WOULD BE QUITE
LOW WITH ANY SUCH SYSTEM. AT ANY RATE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO
AT LEAST AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES NEAR 100.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE VSBY RESTRICTIONS FROM
WILDFIRE SMOKE. MODELS SHOW PERSISTENT CONCENTRATIONS OF NEAR-
SURFACE SMOKE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD, SO HAVE MAINTAINED SOME
RESTRICTION TO VSBY. VISIBILITY MAY STILL BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN
4-6SM.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
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