878
FXUS63 KTOP 030505
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1205 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKY/HAZY SKIES GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH SUNDAY. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS KEEPING
EASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH. THE
HRRR IS TRYING TO SUGGEST THAT NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST THIS EVENING, BUT WE HAVE SEEN
SOME IMPROVEMENTS IN THE SMOKE WITH INCREASING VISIBILITIES ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. WE MAY STILL HAVE PERIODS OF SMOKY/HAZY
SKIES INTO TONIGHT, BUT OVERALL THINK THIS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO
SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST AND ALLOWS OUR
WINDS TO TAKE ON A BIT MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.
A WEAK PERTURBATION COMING OFF THE ROCKIES AND ROUNDING THE UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY DECREASES INTO EASTERN KS,
SO OVERALL ANY STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE AREA WITH
ONLY AROUND 250-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE (HIGHEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS).
CAMS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THIS ACTIVITY INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT, MAINLY AFTER 3AM, AND LARGELY
DISSIPATING IT EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE IT REACHES THE HWY 75
CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
PLAINS, ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE, SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CAMS AREN'T OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THIS HAVING
MUCH IMPACT ON OUR AREA WITH ONE COMPLEX IN NEBRASKA DYING OUT
BEFORE IT REACHES KS, AND THE OTHER REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH IN OK/TX.
HAVE LOW POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL KS WITH INSTABILITY LOOKING SIMILAR
TO TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF SMOKE OR STORMS, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN COOL THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND
LOWS AROUND 60.
AFTER MONDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHEAST WITH MID-
LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING ACROSS OUR AREA AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW STEADY
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND, BRINGING HIGHS BACK SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S BY
TUESDAY AND 90S AREA-WIDE BY THURSDAY. HUMIDITY SLOWLY INCREASES
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME AS WELL, BRINGING BACK 70+ DEGREE DEW POINTS
AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
WE'LL NEED HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THAT WAVE
BEFORE BEING CONFIDENT ON HOW/IF IT MIGHT IMPACT TEMPERATURES THAT
DAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AS IT APPROACHES KMHK THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THIS
ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES, SO HAVE INPUT VCSH FOR A
FEW HOURS. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHTNING AROUND KMHK, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION. SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS
KTOP/KFOE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page