122
FXUS63 KTOP 031125
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
625 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
- BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
- A WARMING TREND COMMENCES TUESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS
GENERATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY RESIDES WITHIN THE AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY
THAT QUICKLY DIMINISHES ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY ENCOUNTER A LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS. NOT
EXPECTING ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHTNING, BUT SLOW STORM MOTIONS COULD SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SHORTWAVE AND POTENTIAL MCV LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY, KEEPING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. CLOUDY SKIES WILL
LIMIT WARMING AND KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
THE WAVE DEPARTS THIS EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE
KEEPING THE AREA MOSTLY DRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE COULD
BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S BEFORE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BUILDS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW RETURNS. A WARMING TREND COMMENCES AS A
RESULT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TUESDAY CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 90S
THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HUMIDITY ALSO RETURNS WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES, RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95-
105 DEGREES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ENERGY ROUNDING THE RIDGE
COULD GENERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES WITH HIGHEST CHANCES (15-
20%) CURRENTLY COMING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. BEST CHANCES ARE AT KMHK,
BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS THIS MORNING IS
UNCERTAIN. INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF SHOWERS
NEAR KMHK. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN
WHERE AND HOW WIDESPREAD ANY PRECIPITATION IS. AGAIN, BEST
CHANCES ARE AT KMHK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
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