694
FXUS63 KTOP 041727
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1227 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING.
- BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND COMMENCES TUESDAY THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING.
- LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEK, WITH THE BEST CHANCE (15-25%)
COMING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HOLDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING
WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED
PERTURBATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ARE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALONG WITH AN MCV THAT IS MEANDERING NEAR THE KS/MO STATE LINE.
SHOWERS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS REMAIN IN PROXIMITY TO THE MCV,
BUT ARE WEAKENING AND EXITING THE AREA. A STRONGER LINE OF STORMS IS
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND IS BEGINNING TO TRACK MORE
SOUTHERLY ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT THAT EXTENDS INTO NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL RUN INTO A LESS UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT, BUT COULD SUSTAIN ITSELF ALONG
THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT BEFORE ENCOUNTERING THIS LESS UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IF THEY MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE, THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH MORE SUNSHINE THAN YESTERDAY BUMPING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BUILDS
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW RETURNS ON TUESDAY. A WARMING TREND COMMENCES AS A RESULT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY CLIMBING BACK INTO
THE 90S THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HUMIDITY ALSO
RETURNS WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES, RESULTING IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 95-105 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A FEW PERTURBATIONS COULD ROUND THE RIDGE
AND GENERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
(15-25%) CURRENTLY COMING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
WORKS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.
THIS BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 12000
FEET. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS AROUND KMHK THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...GARGAN
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