775
FXUS63 KTOP 041942
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
242 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND COMMENCES TUESDAY THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING.
- LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEK, WITH THE BEST CHANCE (15-30%)
COMING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
- HIGHER RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWED A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US, WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AN UPPER TROUGH
WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MO, SOUTHWARD ACROSS LA. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WAS ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WERE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MINOR
PERTURBATIONS WERE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE AND DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE 18Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL
IA, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN MO, SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN
OK. SOUTHEAST WINDS WERE ADVECTING UPPER 60S AND TO AROUND 70
DEGREE DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTHWEST OK INTO WESTERN KS. WINDS
ACROSS EASTERN KS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE CLOSER TO THE CENTER
OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS. RADAR ZR SHOWED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE. THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MOST CAMS SHOW THESE
SHOWERS DISSIPATING BEFORE ENTERING THE CWA. I'LL PROBABLY PLACE
A 10 TO 14 PERCENT POP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGHS PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST KS. THE NORTHWEST MMID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL VEER MORE TO THE WEST. A FEW EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS WILL ROUND THE H5 RIDGE AXIS AND DIG EAST-SOUTHEAST.
THE FIRST MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL CAUSE SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NE AND WESTERN KS THIS
EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST BUT WILL WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN KS. I CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
REACHING NORTH CENTRAL KS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
TUESDAY. BUT THESE ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE, SO MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL RIDE AROUND
THE H5 RIDGE AXIS AND SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NE INTO NORTHEAST
KS AND NORTHERN MO. STRONGER ASCENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, ALONG WITH A STRONGER LLJ WILL PROVIDE STRONGER ASCENT AND
THE LLJ WILL ADVECT RICHER MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE
OVERALL EFFECTIVE SHEAR LOOKS WEAK, SO THESE ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD
NOT BE SEVERE. AS THE MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MO, THE THUNDERSTORMS SWILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA. ALSO, THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE AS THE PBL MIXES DEEPER.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S NORTH TO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER WITH THE H5 RIDGE
AXIS BUILDING A BIT FARTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS KS. HIGHS ALONG THE NE
BORDER WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH WITH LOWER TO MID 90S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERN US RIDGE AXIS
WILL BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN LOWER TO MID 90S AND AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 DEGREES EAST CENTRAL KS.
HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S NORTH TO AROUND
100 DEGREES SOUTH. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS H5 PERTURBATIONS
WILL RIDE AROUND THE H5 RIDGE AXIS MUCH FARTHER NORTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
A MORE AMPLIFIED H5 TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT MAY STALL OUT
ALONG I-70. THE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT
WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 80S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 12000
FEET. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS AROUND KMHK THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...GARGAN
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