649
FXUS63 KTOP 051734
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1234 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- CHANCE (15-25%) FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- HIGHER CHANCES (30-50%) FOR PRECIPITATION COME THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
WAVES ROUNDING THE NORTHERLY PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ARE FOCUSED
FARTHER WEST THIS MORNING, KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA VOID OF ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE TODAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE NUDGES NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 18-20 DEGREES C THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS ECLIPSING
90 DEGREES. STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
ASCENT TO ALLOW FOR A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS OR STORMS TO DEVELOP AS
EARLY AS THIS EVENING WITH LOW CHANCES CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COVERAGE LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN RATHER WEAK ASCENT, BUT MUCAPE
OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20-30KTS COULD SUPPORT A
STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS IF STORMS DO
IMPACT THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COME WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
A MID-LEVEL WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI. THE TRACK
OF THIS WAVE SHOULD TEND TO STEER ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN
NEBRASKA AND IOWA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WHICH COULD CLIP NORTHERN
AND FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. THE
TRACK OF THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD STILL CHANGE WITH A FARTHER
WEST TRACK LEADING TO STORMS IMPACTING MORE OF THE AREA WHILE A
FARTHER EAST TRACK COULD KEEP THE AREA DRY ALTOGETHER. NONETHELESS,
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY APPEARS DRY WITH FURTHER WARMING OF THE
850MB TEMPERATURES, LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
HUMIDITY ALSO INCREASES WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES LEADING TO
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 90-100 DEGREES. THE RIDGE SLIDES EVEN FURTHER
NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, LEADING TO A PEAK IN THE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COUPLED WITH THE
HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95-105 DEGREES. THE WAVE
TRAIN AROUND THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES DURING THIS
TIME, BUT IS SHUNTED SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH. HOWEVER, THE PROXIMITY
OF THESE WAVES COULD STILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES, BUT CHANCES ARE OVERALL LOW (<20%).
A STRONGER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WORKS
TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THIS
BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO LINGER AROUND THE REGION
WITH PERIODIC WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW KEEPING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW CAMS SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 12Z TO 15Z WED BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
PLACE IN TAFS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...GARGAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page