945
FXUS63 KTOP 052313
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
613 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- CHANCE (10-24%) FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY .
- HIGHER CHANCES (30-60%) FOR PRECIPITATION COME THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHERN NM. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL KS. A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
MID AND SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY. A SHORTER WAVE LENGTH TROUGH
WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO ND. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE 19Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
WI, SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN MO. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
SOUTHEAST WY, SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CO. THE STRONGER 850MB WINDS
AND RICHER MOISTURE TRANSPORT WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KS WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
A MINOR PERTURBATIONS WILL ROUND THE H5 RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NE AND
THEN DIG SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MO THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THE HRRR, RAP, AND THE HRW-MP3 KEEP THE
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE 3KM-NAM, ALL OF THE WRF VERSIONS, AND
THE NSSL MPAS SHOW AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT OR GREATER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THESE STORMS SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE GIVEN
WEAK SHEAR AND MAINLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION, COMBINED WITH ASCENT FROM THE INCREASING 850MB JET
MAY CAUSE A FEW ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME I WENT
WITH 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF
I-70 AND 10-14 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ELEVATED STORMS
SOUTH OF I-70.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S, MAY BE NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ADVECTION ON
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S WEST TO LOWER 70S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS. HEAT INDICES WILL
REACH THE UPPER 90S NORTH TO 100 TO 104 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-70. FRIDAY AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70
MAY REACH THE 104 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE. THUS, A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS SHOULD TRACK
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NE AND SD, SO WE LOOK TO REMAIN DRY.
SATURDAY, THE H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO MO AND THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AND
HEAT INDICIES WOULD REMAIN BELOW 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
LOOK FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT MAY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH H5 TROUGHS DIGGING EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOOK FOR A 30 TO 60 PERCENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE H5 TROUGHS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE 80S BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
DEVELOPING TOMORROW MORNING. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND 15Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO PLACE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...JONES
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