649
FXUS63 KTOP 060757
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
257 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO WORK INTO THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND LAST THROUGH MIDDAY MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN
KS (GENERALLY 20-25% CHANCE).
- ANOTHER 20-25% CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
AND STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- MAINLY DRY AND HOT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH FRIDAY BEING THE
HOTTEST WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLY NEARING 105 DEGREES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
- A WEAK BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA
WITH A 30- 60% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MAINLY NORTH
OF I-70 FOR NOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN MCS HAS ORGANIZED BUT REMAINS OVERALL WEAK AS
IT MOVES SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION. WIND OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
SUB-SEVERE (BELOW 60 MPH) AT THE TIME OF THIS COMPOSITION. A WEAK TO
MODERATELY STRONG LLJ IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO FOLLOW SUIT. STILL THINKING A
FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN AND POSSIBLY
INTO FAR EAST-CENTRAL AREAS. A 20-25% CHANCE SEEMS REASONABLE RIGHT
NOW AS MOST GUIDANCE STILL HAS STORMS WEAKEN OR NOT ARRIVE TO THE
AREA AT ALL. IF THEY DO HOLD TOGETHER, EXPECT ELEVATED STORMS WITH
HIGH BASES GENERALLY AROUND 10KFT WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR POSSIBLY
SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS TO RESULT NEAR THE SURFACE DUE TO SUB-CLOUD
DRY AIR IN PLACE. WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS LOOKS UNLIKELY WITH
OVERALL WEAK SHEAR IN PLACE AND LIMITED INSTABILITY CONSIDERING THE
HIGH BASES. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE MIDDAY TO
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SKIES BEGIN TO SCATTER AND CLEAR INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR, NEAR 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ARE BACK ACROSS THE
AREA AND SUFFICIENT INSOLATION WILL ALLOW FOR LOW TO MID 90 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
NEAR 100 DEGREES AND UP TO AROUND 105 DEGREES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
PLACE AND LIKELY LAST INTO SATURDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST
DAY WITH THE THERMAL H85 RIDGE FULLY SET UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH
H85 TEMPS CLOSE TO 30C IN PLACE. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ADVISORY FOR AT
LEAST FRIDAY.
BEFORE THE HOTTEST PART OF THE WEEK, OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING MAY SEE A WEAK PERTURBATION ROUND THE BROAD
ANTICYCLONE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE COULD SPARK OFF MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WHICH MAY FIND THEIR WAY INTO
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CAN'T RULE OUT A
GUST THAT COULD PUSH SEVERE LIMITS BUT OVERALL CHANCES APPEAR LOW
AGAIN.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
STALLS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD
BRING OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH MONDAY MORNING
CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE THE BEST OVERALL WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO TAKE SHAPE AS AN UPPER TROUGH WORKS
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE SOUTHERN
FLANK HELPING TO SUPPORT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE THERE MAY BE MARGINAL
WS CONDITIONS SET UP AROUND KMHK AND POINTS TO THE WEST AS
SURFACE WINDS PARTIALLY DECOUPLE. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS ENTER THE REGION EARLY INTO MID-MORNING PRIMARILY
IMPACTING THE EASTERN TERMINALS. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING
THE OVERALL SETUP DUE TO A FAIRLY DEEP SUB-CLOUD DRY LAYER IN
PLACE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS IF THEY
DO IMPACT THE TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK STORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO DETERMINE IF THEY TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK
VS SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK WHICH WILL LIKELY MAKE THE DIFFERENCE
FROM HAVING IMPACTS VS LITTLE TO NONE. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
WITH MIXING BY MID-MORNING AT ALL SITES.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...DRAKE
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