005
FXUS63 KTOP 252323
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
623 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND..
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A
50% CHANCE FOR 1-1.5 INCH AMOUNTS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MINNEAPOLIS TO OTTAWA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
PRECIPITATION HAS LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS ARE CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY
WIND. TONIGHT WILL BE RATHER COOL WITH CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 50S. TUESDAY LOOKS QUIET IN THE
WAKE OF TODAY'S DEPARTING WAVE. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, A SURFACE
TROUGH IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO A FAST-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERING IDEAS AS TO
HOW FAR NORTHEAST PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH WITH THIS WAVE. THERE
REMAINS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING
SOME DECENT RAINFALL. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS FURTHEST NORTH
WHILE THE GFS/NAM ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND THE ECMWF SOMEWHERE IN
THE MIDDLE. IF THE FURTHER NORTH SCENARIO PLAYS OUT THEN
LOCATIONS AS FAR NORTH AS I-70 COULD SEE AS MUCH AS AN INCH OF
RAIN. HOWEVER, IF THE SOUTHERN SCENARIO WINS OUT THEN THOSE KIND
OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE RESERVED FOR LOCATIONS TO
THE SOUTH, LIKE EMPORIA. A GENERAL MODEL BLEND (WHICH WAS USED
FOR THIS FORECAST) HAS AROUND A 50% CHANCE OF 1-1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MINNEAPOLIS TO OTTAWA WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AND HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. FRIDAY LOOKS QUIET BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
POTENTIALLY MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL. AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL AND THICK CLOUD COVER MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES, BUT AREAS THAT SEE PLENTY OF SUN
MAY MAKE A RUN AT 80. OVERALL, A COOLER AND WETTER THAN AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR PATTERN IS FAVORED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS.
THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT KMHK MAY DIP SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
CROSSOVER TEMPERATRES, SO THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
AROUND SUNRISE AT KMHK.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...GARGAN
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