377
FXUS63 KTOP 270538
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1238 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KS.
- RAIN AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO SEE A LARGE RANGE FROM VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS NORTHEAST TO PERHAPS A FEW INCHES TO THE SOUTH.
- TEMPERATE WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OH RIVER VALLEY WHILE SHALLOW RIDGING
REMAINED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SURFACE OBS SHOWED HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IA AND NORTHERN MO WITH RELATIVELY DRY
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO
CREST THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AN INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, MAINLY BY INCREASING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE BATTLE BETWEEN
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SET
UP OVER THE FORECAST WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM LITTLE QPF OVER
NORTHEAST KS TO PERHAPS A FEW INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BORDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
INSTABILITY FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION OVER THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.5 C/KM. SO PRECIPITATION MAY END UP BEING MORE
STRATIFORM WITH SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION. WITH 3HR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE AROUND 3 INCHES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS, THINK RAINFALL
RATES COULD BE MANAGEABLE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS RATHER LOW. HOWEVER THERE REMAINS DECENT PROBABILITIES FOR
MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM THE 00Z ENSEMBLES GENERALLY ALONG AN
AXIS FROM COUNCIL GROVE TO GARNETT. AND THE 12Z HREF HAS SPOTTY
PROBABILITIES OF 10 PERCENT FOR RAINFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR MORE.
SO THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IS NON-ZERO. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
ICT AND SGF, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH CLEARING THIS EVENING TO ALLOW
TONIGHT'S LOWS TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO KEEP WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES WHILE NORTHEAST KS
MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE INSOLATION WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW WEAK PERTURBATIONS POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE FLOW, BUT GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE THIS IS A LOWER
PREDICTABILITY PATTERN. SO HAVE STUCK WITH THE NBM INITIALIZATION
WHICH HAS SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS FOR
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO FAVOR HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TO CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
KEEPING MORE TEMPERATE WEATHER IN PLACE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE. DESPITE LIGHT WINDS NEAR SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE, NOT EXPECTING DIURNAL BR/FG OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH INCREASING WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER
INCREASING CIRRUS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS DIMINISH WITH TIME WITH
LIMITING STRATUS AND SHOWER POTENTIAL INCREASING LATE.
CONFIDENCE IN THESE CONDITIONS IS NOT HIGH WITH MUCH GUIDANCE
LIMITING THE NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION TO NEAR THE TERMINALS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...POAGE
AVIATION...DRAKE
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