437
FXUS63 KTOP 271721
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1221 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TO
EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY.
- MORE INTENSE AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES IS LIKELY
(60% OR GREATER CHANCE) SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HERINGTON TO
GARNETT BUT THE FLOODING POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
PRECIPITATION WAS ABOUT TO ENTER SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
DOWNSTREAM OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAD
EXITED INTO EASTERN MISSOURI WITH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
RETURNING LOCALLY.
THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE AID FROM SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THIS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT, WITH A MORE INTENSE ROUND COMING THIS
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMERGES FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS UNDER WHAT MAY BE A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE
ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES WITH
MODEST CAPE THOUGH THIS CAPE IS SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND
SOME TRAINING OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. OVERALL RATES
CONTINUE TO LOOK TO NOT BE VERY IMPRESSIVE FROM EVEN THE MOST ROBUST
CAMS WITH SPOTTY 10% CHANCES OF OVER AN INCH PER HOUR FROM THE 0Z
HREF AND LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE FOR 3 INCHES OVER 6 HOURS FROM THE
01Z NBM. THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE SOME SIGNAL FOR NEARLY ANY HEAVY
RAIN TO BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS,
THE CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING REMAIN LOW. THE MAIN IMPACT COULD BE
RISES ON SOME RIVERS AND CREEKS. A SOMEWHAT SLOWER ONSET TO THE
THICKER CLOUD SHOULD PUSH TODAY'S TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AREA-
WIDE. SOME CLEARING THURSDAY SHOULD AGAIN BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S THOUGH CONFIDENCE THE TIMING OF THE
CLEARING IS NOT HIGH. IF THE CLEARING IS MORE ROBUST, A FOG SCENARIO
COULD EASILY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS AND POTENTIAL WET GROUND.
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK RATHER BENIGN OVERALL WITH MODEST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNING. THIS SHOULD AID IN KEEPING SOMEWHAT
COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
VFR BECOMING IFR TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND PERSIST UNTIL TOMORROW
MORNING. JUST HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST THIS ACTIVITY MAKES IT IS
STILL IN QUESTION. THE TERMINALS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE, THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF
MORE/LESS RAIN/STORMS THAN FORECAST. THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME
FOR PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS IS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW. AREAS THAT AREN'T SEEING RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY SEE MORE FOG. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA
BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...POAGE
AVIATION...JONES
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