851
FXUS63 KTOP 271845
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
145 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES
IS LIKELY (60% OR GREATER CHANCE) SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
HERINGTON TO GARNETT BUT THE FLOODING POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN (20-40%) SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MOIST ADVECTION WITH SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S BY THIS
EVENING AND PWATS AROUND 1.75 INCHES. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL TRY
TO NOSE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT, BUT SHOULD LARGELY STAY TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY AND MORE FOCUSED LIFT
SHOULD ALSO STAY TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE BISECTS
KANSAS TONIGHT. WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE MAIN
STORM TRACK REMAINING OFF TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, FAR NORTHEAST
KANSAS MAY SEE LITTLE TO NO RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MINNEAPOLIS - ABILENE - HERRINGTON - EMPORIA - GARNETT. THESE
AND SURROUNDING LOCATIONS COULD SEE 1-2.5 INCHES OF RAIN. WITH
RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND RAIN RATES GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
AN INCH OR LESS AN HOUR, FLASH FLOODING IS NOT FAVORED. SOME
LOCAL RISES IN CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
STREAMS THAT HAVE THEIR HEADWATERS FURTHER WEST (PORTIONS OF
SALINE, MARION AND CHASE COUNTIES COULD SEE ABOVE 3 INCHES OF
RAIN). FOG IS LOOKING LIKELY TONIGHT WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER
AND LIGHT WIND. THE FOG AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE AREA
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH SEVERAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW
AND MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE, RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
VFR BECOMING IFR TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND PERSIST UNTIL TOMORROW
MORNING. JUST HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST THIS ACTIVITY MAKES IT IS
STILL IN QUESTION. THE TERMINALS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE, THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF
MORE/LESS RAIN/STORMS THAN FORECAST. THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME
FOR PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS IS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW. AREAS THAT AREN'T SEEING RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY SEE MORE FOG. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA
BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...JONES
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