521
FXUS63 KTOP 280542
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1242 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES
IS LIKELY (60% OR GREATER CHANCE) SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
HERINGTON TO GARNETT BUT THE FLOODING POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN (20-40%) SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MOIST ADVECTION WITH SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S BY THIS
EVENING AND PWATS AROUND 1.75 INCHES. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL TRY
TO NOSE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT, BUT SHOULD LARGELY STAY TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY AND MORE FOCUSED LIFT
SHOULD ALSO STAY TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE BISECTS
KANSAS TONIGHT. WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE MAIN
STORM TRACK REMAINING OFF TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, FAR NORTHEAST
KANSAS MAY SEE LITTLE TO NO RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MINNEAPOLIS - ABILENE - HERRINGTON - EMPORIA - GARNETT. THESE
AND SURROUNDING LOCATIONS COULD SEE 1-2.5 INCHES OF RAIN. WITH
RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND RAIN RATES GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
AN INCH OR LESS AN HOUR, FLASH FLOODING IS NOT FAVORED. SOME
LOCAL RISES IN CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
STREAMS THAT HAVE THEIR HEADWATERS FURTHER WEST (PORTIONS OF
SALINE, MARION AND CHASE COUNTIES COULD SEE ABOVE 3 INCHES OF
RAIN). FOG IS LOOKING LIKELY TONIGHT WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER
AND LIGHT WIND. THE FOG AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE AREA
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH SEVERAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW
AND MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE, RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
MESSY TAFS WILL BE IN ORDER FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS CEILINGS
BEGIN TO DROP INTO MVFR AND IFR STATUS AS SHOWERS TRY TO SLIDE
EAST TOWARDS THE TERMINALS. REDUCED OVERALL MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY AT KTOP AND KFOE AS FORECAST TRENDS
AND CONFIDENCE KEEP MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE THOSE
TERMINALS. KEPT A PROB30 IN AT KMHK AS THERE WILL BE SOME BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT
THERE. MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR ALL SITES BEFORE AFTERNOON
MIXING HELPS TO RAISE CEILINGS BY AROUND THE LATE AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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