032
FXUS63 KTOP 281908
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
208 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AS A COLD FRONT/UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
- AFTER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S THIS WEEKEND, ANOTHER SURGE OF
COOLER AIR DROPS HIGHS TO THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REGIME IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS, FEATURING THE DEPARTING EMBEDDED TROUGH INTO OK WITH AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM TOWARDS WY AND MT. IN THE
MEANTIME, SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING,
ACCOMPANIED BY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST. AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE LOWER
STRATUS AND/OR FOG DEVELOP. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR THIS TO OCCUR
ARE TOWARDS CENTRAL AND FAR EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND SUNRISE
FRIDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED EMBEDDED WAVE ALONG WITH SEVERAL WEAKER VORT
MAXES WILL SLOWLY ROUND THE UPPER RIDGE FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY IMPACTING
NORTHEAST KANSAS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FORCING ALOFT AND EFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT MISALIGNED BETWEEN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WITH CURRENT INDICATIONS FOR MOST WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE
PRECIP IN THE SUNDAY EVENING - MONDAY TIME FRAME. QPF IN THIS PERIOD
IS NOT IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE THE DRY SOILS UNFORTUNATELY,
RANGING FROM A TRACE TO 0.75 INCHES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR THE
25TH-75TH PERCENTILES. THE ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN LENDS TO UNCERTAINTY
IN POPS AND SUBSEQUENT TEMPS TUESDAY-THURSDAY AS LATEST NBM IS
TRENDING COOLER AND FASTER WITH THE SURGE OF COOLER AIRMASS, FROM
THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY TO THE LOW 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
MVFR CIGS AT KMHK WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR ALONG WITH
KTOP/KFOE THIS AFTERNOON AS SWATH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EXIT
SOUTHEAST. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE,
FURTHER COMPLICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. TERMINALS DID NOT OBSERVE THE RAINFALL THAT MODELS
ANTICIPATED SO BELIEVE FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE
ON SFC MOISTURE. UNTIL HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS MET, HAVE OPTED TO
NOT INSERT FOG AT KTOP/KMHK AT THIS ISSUANCE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PRIETO
AVIATION...PRIETO
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