200
FXUS63 KTOP 311659
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1159 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
- AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 INCH, WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN
EXPECTED THURSDAY BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NE AND CENTRAL KS. AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH DCVA WAS CAUSING ASCENT ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT TO
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN TX AND
EXTENDED WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, THEN AMPLIFIED
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. AN UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OFF THE
WA/OR COAST. AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH WAS SHIFTING EAST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.
AT 1 AM THIS MORNING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN IL,
NORTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NE, THEN NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST SD.
A SECOND FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, WEST
NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TX, THEN WEST INTO SOUTHEAST NM.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FIRST MID-
LEVEL PERTURBATION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NE AND CENTRAL KS WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MOST CAMS SHOW THE HIGHER
POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING OURS BUT EXPECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION. MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF TUESDAY.
THE HREF SHOWS A PROBABILITY OF A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR UP TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH 00Z TUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS. I DON'T
EXPECT ANY FLASH FLOODING BUT THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON STREAMS AND
RIVERS.
HIGHS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH SOME UPPER
60S ALONG THE NE BORDER.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN CANADA WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON
WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CAA ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CAUSE A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
BUT THE RICHER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA, SO THE
RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL BE COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S EXPECTED.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
THE LONGER RANGE MODEL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AMPLIFYING AND ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS.
THE NBM MAY BE A BIT WARMER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
MAY ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, WITH MORE
INSOLATION. SATURDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AND BACK
TO BE MORE ZONAL. LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL CAUSE RICHER MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD ACROSS KS. A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL MOVE EAST
INTO WESTERN KS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MID 70S
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA PROVIDING FORCING FOR VERTICAL MOTION. SO SCATTERED
SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED TS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING PRECIP SO WILL KEEP A
VCSH AND AMEND THE FORECAST BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS. CIGS HAVE
ALSO BEEN DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN. MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS ACROSS EASTERN KS. STILL TRENDS ARE
FOR LOWER CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SO WILL KEEP VFR CIGS AT TOP AND
FOE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LOWER CIGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. MVFR
CIGS AT MHK ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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