231
FXUS63 KTOP 111722
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1222 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UPPER RIDGE CENTERS OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
MAXIMIZING HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS IN THE 80S SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING
WHILE A WEAKENING PERTURBATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY IS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS. THESE HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING THROUGH
SUNRISE. CURRENT OBS ARE SHOWING ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/4 MILE. RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS
MAY CONTINUE TO SEE AREAS OF FOG THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE MIXING OUT.
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY BL MIXING COMMENCES THIS AFTERNOON AS H85 TEMPS
ABOVE 20C ARE ADVECTED EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KS. SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH, GUSTING TO 25 MPH DURING PEAK HEATING OF
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE ROUNDS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
LATE TONIGHT, DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HRRR, MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
OPTIMAL FORCING TO THE NORTH SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FRIDAY
MORNING. H85 THERMAL RIDGE STRETCHES INTO ALL OF NORTHEAST KANSAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, MAXIMIZING SFC HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WHILE
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST FROM 20 TO 25 MPH EACH AFTERNOON.
EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGHING ENTERS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY.
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BY THE EVENING, POTENTIALLY REACHING NORTH CENTRAL AREAS
SUNDAY MORNING (20-40%). OPERATIONAL RUNS OF MID TERM GUIDANCE
DIFFER FROM ENSEMBLES WHICH ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN CONVECTION
SPREADING INTO EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
BELIEVE THAT THE LATEST NBM MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO HIGH FOR
RAINFALL OVER EASTERN KANSAS, HOWEVER SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS AND A 30-40 KT LLJ AIDS IN
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING. HIGHEST POPS IN THE
PERIOD WERE KEPT IN THIS PERIOD, RETURNING BACK TO DRY
CONDITIONS TO START THE WORK WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN POPS
WANES TOWARDS MID WEEK WITH FLOW BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEAKER EMBEDDED WAVES TRAVELING THROUGH THE PLAINS AS A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW ROTATES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT SCATTERED STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE REGION,
SPECIFICALLY EARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. A MORE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BRING MINOR DAYTIME GUSTS TO MHK TODAY AND ALL SITES BY
AROUND 16Z FRIDAY. THE STRONGER MIXING KEEPS DIURNAL BR FROM
FORMING TONIGHT BUT BRINGS SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MINOR LLWS MAINLY
AT MHK FROM 04Z TO 13Z, THOUGH TOO SMALL FOR INCLUSION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW, THOUGH A HIGH-BASED SHOWER
CAN'T BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PRIETO
AVIATION...POAGE
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