372
FXUS63 KTOP 112335
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
635 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL (<25%) CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT.
GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
- ABOVE TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS BUILDING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY. ONE MORE ROUND OF MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ALOFT WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT WITH SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE,
THOUGH MOISTURE QUALITY VARIES AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BETTER LIFT WILL BE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
BUT THERE IS SOME SIGNAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS WELL. WENT
AHEAD WITH SMALL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT COULD
SEE SOMETHING MORE ISOLATED AREA-WIDE. ANY AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER LIGHT
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DRY LOWER LEVELS THOUGH INDIVIDUAL
SHOWERS SHOULD MORE SLOWLY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK TO TREND UP TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY WITH MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW DOMINATING.
NBM TEMPERATURE SPREADS ARE RATHER SMALL THROUGH THIS TIME WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR FOG IN A
MORE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND CLOUDIER SETUP.
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST EJECTS NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY THOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE MORE IMPRESSIVE THIS FAR SOUTH COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. STORM CHANCES SHOULD BE GREATEST SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THOUGH INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE SUGGESTING LOW SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. CONFIDENCE BEYOND TUESDAY CONTINUES TO BE LOW WITH
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING OF A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH COMING EAST.
THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH NOT AS WARM
TEMPERATRES LIKELY (NBM CHANCE FOR HIGHS OVER 85 ARE LESS THAN
50% FOR THURSDAY).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
SURFACE WINDS SUBSIDE AT SUNSET THIS EVENING, BUT WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AS MIXING COMMENCES
FOLLOWING SUNRISE FRIDAY. THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
LLWS OVERNIGHT AT KMHK WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AROUND 40 KTS.
A FEW MODELS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, BUT HAVE CHANCES
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AT TAF SITES.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...POAGE
AVIATION...TEEFEY
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