639
FXUS63 KTOP 121704
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1204 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEXT BEST CHANCE (20-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING. SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS ROUNDING THE APEX OF THE RIDGE
ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAVE LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE
THROUGH THE MORNING AND A DRY, BUT HOT DAY IS EXPECTED. BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS WILL HELP TO BUMP HIGHS INTO THE LOW/MID 90S WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT FORCING IS STILL PROGGED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW, BUT A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS PASSING
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. THIS LEADS TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
IS LOW AT THIS POINT. A STRONGER WAVE ADVANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO END THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
MODELS SHOW A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST.
THERE IS A CONCERN FOR LLWS WITH A 35 TO 40KT JET DEVELOPING.
WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF WIND SHEAR FOR TOP AND MHK WITHIN THE
RIVER VALLEY WHERE SURFACE WINDS COULD DECOUPLE. THINK SOME
MIXING AND LIMITED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AT FOE WILL MITIGATE WIND
SHEAR POTENTIAL.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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