533
FXUS63 KTOP 122327
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
627 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- CHANCES (20-50%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST
TO EAST ON SUNDAY.
- THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ORGANIZED CHANCE (30-45%) FOR PRECIPITATION
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
PER THE 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILER DATA. AN ELONGATED
CYCLONIC FLOW WAS NOTED UPSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE THE STRONGER FLOW WAS MOVING OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND INTO WESTERN CANADA. SURFACE OBS PLACED A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT AREAS OF CO AND SD.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND GOOD MIXING WERE HELPING TEMPS WARM
INTO THE LOWER 90S.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND WARM WEATHER
CONTINUING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN SOME INHIBITION TO A SURFACE
PARCEL THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SO WITH THE EXPECTED LACK OF
FORCING, PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NIL. HIGHS SATURDAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY'S GIVEN GOOD INSOLATION. ALTHOUGH MODELS
SHOW A LITTLE LESS MIXING AND SOME COOLING AT 925MB SUGGESTING
READINGS MAY BE A DEGREE COOLER.
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS BY SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL KS AND INTO NEB. INITIALLY MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO BE RATHER MODEST, BUT AS HEIGHTS FALL AND MID LEVELS
COOL THERE SHOULD BE SOME STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG WHERE SURFACE HEATING OCCURS. BULK SHEAR BECOMES
MARGINALLY STRONGER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS SUCH THAT AN ORGANIZED
UPDRAFT COULD DEVELOP. IF EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER JUST RIGHT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, THERE COULD BE A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. AT THIS POINT THE RISK APPEARS TO BE TO
LOW TO BEGIN MESSAGING. THE OVERALL TREND FROM THE MODELS HAS BEEN
TO LIMIT QPF ON SUNDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS THE NBM HAS BACKED OFF ON
POPS. ADDITIONALLY WITH BETTER CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KS, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSOLATION ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KS FOR HIGHS TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 90S.
THE INITIAL WAVE IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY FAVORING DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 80S AND
AROUND 90 FOR MOST AREAS. FOR THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND SPREADS FROM THE
ENSEMBLES INCREASE. SO HAVE STUCK WITH THE BLEND FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MID-WEEK COULD BRING A WEAK FRONT AND
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE AREA. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO TREND SLIGHTLY
COOLER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BUT GIVEN THE LOWER
PREDICTABILITY FROM THE MODELS THERE IS ROOM FOR THESE NUMBERS TO
MOVE IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. WIND AND
NIGHTTIME LLWS ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS IN THE FORECAST. A 35 TO
40 KT LLJ AROUND 1 KFT AND SLIGHT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITHIN THE
LAYER WILL PRODUCE LLWS AT SITES. SFC WINDS INCREASE AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY, REACHING 10 TO 15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...TEEFEY
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