554
FXUS63 KTOP 131054
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
554 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- CHANCES (20-50%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
- ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES (30-60%) COME DURING THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM
YESTERDAY, A VERY SIMILAR DAY IS EXPECTED WITH GOOD MIXING AND CLEAR
SKIES BOOSTING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
EJECTS ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST FORCING
AND BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT FORCING IS
STILL PROGGED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. INSTABILITY IS RATHER
WEAK INITIALLY AND MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 30
KTS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AND THE SHEAR-
INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF
THESE STORMS AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE STRONGEST STORMS STAY JUST
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE SEVERE RISK DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND HIGHS WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. A COUPLE OF PERTURBATIONS
EJECTING NORTHEAST IN THE MEAN FLOW COULD GENERATE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON TUESDAY BEFORE A STRONGER WAVE ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FAVORED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH A COLD
FRONT EVENTUALLY PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO TREND BACK TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS LATE NEXT WEEK,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A 10 DEGREE SPREAD IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
FROM THE NBM 25TH-75TH PERCENTILES GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE FRONT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LLWS DIMINISHES AS SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS THROUGH THE DAY,
PARTICULARLY AT KMHK. WINDS WEAKEN BACK BELOW 10 KTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
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