064
FXUS63 KTOP 141744
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1244 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES (20-45%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. BEST CHANCES (60-70%)
COME TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES TREND BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PLAINS. THIS TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT ADVANCES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING, AND
PRECIPITATION SHIFTS EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH THE SPEED
OF THE WAVE HAS SLOWED. LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ARE LIMITED
INITIALLY, BUT DO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. SHEAR IS
WEAK AND SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE LEADING
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AND DCAPE
VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG COULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS. LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN AND SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 30KTS ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WHERE CLEARING IS PROGGED TO OCCUR CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS AREA CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WHILE CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA, THESE STORMS WILL TRACK EAST- NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING
HOURS, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. IF THESE STORMS ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES
AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, THEY COULD PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT DECREASING
INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE.
LINGERING ENERGY COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN AN UNSTABLE,
UNCAPPED AIRMASS TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAMS HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL, BUT
VARY IN LOCATION AND COVERAGE OF STORMS. NONETHELESS, WEAK SHEAR
SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF STORMS, BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING TAKES CONTROL
OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. SEVERAL PASSING WAVES OF ENERGY ALONG WITH A
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES (60-70%) COMING TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF
SUBSEQUENT WAVES KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOWER FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK. COOLER AIR IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO BUILD IN BY MID-WEEK
WHICH, ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER, WILL KNOCK HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER IS CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL KS AND
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IT'S UNCERTAIN HOW
WELL IT WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF, AND WITH LITTLE LIGHTNING
OBSERVED THUS FAR, THINK RAIN HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MAKING IT
THAN TS, BUT HAVE MAINTAINED THE PROB30 MENTION OF TS IN MHK
WITH A TRANSITION TO VCSH AT TOP/FOE. PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW
TO MENTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT THERE IS A BETTER
SIGNAL FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING IN EASTERN KS.
TOP/FOE STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THOSE, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE
REMAINS MIXED ON THEIR OCCURRENCE, SO WENT WITH A PROB30 GROUP
FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THIS EVENING AND STAY LIGHT THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...PICHA
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