471
FXUS63 KTOP 151726
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1226 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. BEST CHANCES (60-75%) COME
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN TEMPERATURES TREND BACK TO NEAR-
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS, BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH DRY TIME DOMINATING MOST OF THE DAYTIME
HOURS. DEEP MIXING AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE (15-20%) FOR A POP-UP SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON
GIVEN AN UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS, BUT A LACK OF FORCING WILL
KEEP ANY ACTIVITY ISOLATED. THE PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT FOR TUESDAY
AND NEARLY A CARBON-COPY OF TODAY IS EXPECTED. A SUBTLE WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW LEADS TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES (20-30%) FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE EJECTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS AND A SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS LOW THANKS TO WEAK SHEAR, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
BECOMES CUTOFF AND FUJIWHARAS AROUND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT DIVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE CUTOFF LOW MEANDERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. PASSING WAVES ROUNDING THE CUTOFF
ENERGY WILL SUPPORT ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY,
BUT IT WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT. TEMPERATURES TREND BACK
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS BY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH
10 KTS ON OCCASION THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THAT
FOR THE MOST PART. OTHERWISE, CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED POP-UP
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT CHANCES
ARE FAR TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...PICHA
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