559
FXUS63 KTOP 160538
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1238 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY OTHER THAN ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWERS OR
STORMS (15-20% CHANCE).
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES (50-70%) COME WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, WITH LINGERING RAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
- WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN TREND BACK
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SITS IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED UP INTO THAT AREA OVERNIGHT, PLACING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO OUR AREA. THIS CONTINUES TO ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, AND GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
EVENTUALLY REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY. MOST CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED WELL TO OUR EAST IN MO, BUT A COUPLE OF WEAKER, ISOLATED
CELLS NEARBY IN KS HAVE PULSED UP AND DOWN. THE BL CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP REMAINING AS OF 19Z, SO WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL POPS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE NEARLY A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH SIMILAR
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND A WELL-MIXED BL UP TO AROUND 800MB. THERE MAY
BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER SIGNAL FOR POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS COMPARED
TO TODAY, BUT OVERALL FORCING IS STILL WEAK. THE HRRR IS THE MOST
ROBUST SOLUTION OUT OF ALL THE CAMS SHOWING CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THINK A COUPLE ISOLATED STORMS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE
OUTCOME WITH A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.
MEANWHILE, A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, WHICH IS WHEN WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS (50-70%)
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A CONTINUOUS
RAINFALL AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME DRY TIME IN BETWEEN PERIODS OF
RAIN AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES CUT OFF AND HANGS AROUND THE AREA. THE
MORE NOTABLE SHEAR LOOKS TO STAY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE
LOW, SO ANY SEVERE RISK LOOKS LOW, BUT IF THERE'S ENOUGH CLEARING
THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COOLER
AIR MASS IN PLACE AS WELL. THE CORE OF THE LOW SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST LATER ON IN THE WEEK, BUT STAYS CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWER
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY MID
CLOUDS FEW TO SCT IN COVERAGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
AROUND OR UNDER 10KTS FROM THE SSE. EARLY MORNING FOG MAY FORM
OVER THE LOW LYING AREAS BUT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS.
THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN FORMATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS COME BY THE END OF THE NEXT PERIOD AS FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...DRAKE
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