742
FXUS63 KTOP 161143
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
643 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABOUT A 20%
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS OR A STORM OVER EAST-CENTRAL INTO FAR
NORTHEASTERN AREAS.
- THE FIRST OF TWO MAIN DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO MIDDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING FROM 40-
60%.
- WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THE SECOND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO AROUND 60-70% CHANCE.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH SEASON NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS SHOWS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH ANOTHER
POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS
SITUATED THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION WITH A
BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP ACROSS THIS REGION WITH A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS TO THE EAST OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS ZONE, A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS IS IN
PLACE AND POISED TO GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA MODIFYING
AS IT DOES BUT YIELDING OVERALL COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE THIS WEEKEND.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS EASTERN AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH MOSTLY CALM WINDS IN PLACE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TIME FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO ALLOW FOR SOME LOW LYING AREAS TO SEE SHALLOW
PATCH FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH SUNRISE. IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY BE
MINIMAL.
INTO THIS AFTERNOON A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A STORM OR TWO MAY
FORM WITHIN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS GENERALLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.
THE BEST CHANCES REMAIN GENERALLY FROM EAST-CENTRAL KS THROUGH FAR
NORTHEASTERN KS AREAS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT DO EXPECT
THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND AS THEY COLLAPSE
WITH LITTLE SHEAR IN PLACE STORMS LIKELY ONLY LAST ABOUT 20-30
MINUTES IF THEY DO FORM. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE
AROUND 90 WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE.
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MIDDAY, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH AND A LEAD SHORTWAVE EMERGES OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVES MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. ABOUT A 40-
60% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE HIGH
BASED WITH SUB-CLOUD DRY AIR IN PLACE SIMILAR TO AN INVERTED-V TYPE
PROFILE. WHILE SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WIND COULD AGAIN BE STRONG WITH A FEW STORMS AS
UPDRAFTS COLLAPSE. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN BUT
LIKELY REMAIN LOCALIZED AS SATURATION IN FORECAST SOUNDS APPEARS TO
BE OVERALL SHALLOW.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE WORKS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE LARGER TROUGH
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING ACROSS THE REGION HELPING TO
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO 60-70%. SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
UNLIKELY AGAIN WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF TALL
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES IN PLACE WITH WEAK SHEAR AGAIN IN PLACE.
THE COOLER MODIFIED AIRMASS PUSHES INTO THE AREA COMPLETELY ON
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE EXPANDING SOUTH. LOOK
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES
WITH LOWER OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND 20-30% ANY GIVEN
PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
STILL MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
CHANGES NEAR THE VERY END OR JUST AFTER THE PERIOD GENERALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND OR UNDER
10KTS FROM THE SSE. THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IN FORMATION IS STILL TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL COME BY THE
END OF THE NEXT PERIOD AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY
IMPACT EASTERN TERMINALS BUT CONFIDENCE IN FORMATION IS AGAIN
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...DRAKE
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