670
FXUS63 KTOP 170845
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
345 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A 40-60% OF PRECIPITATION SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
- AFTER A LULL IN PRECIPITATION, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA AROUND A 60-70% CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SET UP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.
- EXPECT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY ABOUT A
20-30% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WHICH LOOKS TO BE FAVORED IN
THE EARLY MORNING TIME FRAMES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
AN ACTIVE AND SLOW MOVING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS
INTO CANADA. AN OMEGA TYPE BLOCK APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN SHAPE AS A
HIGH OVER LOW IS IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL CANADA DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CANADIAN
COASTLINE. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS STRETCHED THROUGH EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS THIS MORNING WHICH IS HARD
TO DEFINE DUE TO ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS AND A REMNANT WEAK
MCS/MCV IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WORKING INTO
THE AREA.
GIVEN THIS SETUP AND THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE PATTERN HAVE
PUSHED BACK CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE MORE FOCUSED FROM
MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. STILL NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS WITH WEAKER OVERALL WIND
FIELDS IN PLACE AND THUS A LOW OVERALL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
INSTABILITY ALSO APPEARS TO BE LIMITED THROUGH THE DAY WITH PROFILES
STILL FAVORING TALL SKINNY CAPE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, IF
SOME CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE, THIS MAY IMPROVE WITH MORE LOW LEVEL
HEATING SETTING UP THAN ANTICIPATED INTO THE AFTERNOON. RESULT WOULD
LIKELY BECOME MORE POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP
TO ALSO CAUSE POSSIBLY A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO AROUND 60 MPH. SO
WHILE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONCERNS THROUGH TODAY FOR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER, CAN'T 100% RULE OUT A STRONG ENOUGH STORM OR TWO BRIEFLY
BECOME SEVERE WITH NEGATIVE MOMENTUM TRANSFER ENHANCED BY THE LOW
LEVEL HEATING AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DCAPE AS A RESULT.
INTO THURSDAY, THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW STILL LOOKS TO PIVOT
THROUGH THE AREA WITH A VORT MAX PROVIDING A MECHANISM TO ENHANCE
FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER STILL WON'T BE LIKELY, COULD STILL SEE A SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE WITH DOWNDRAFT WIND POTENTIAL. ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FOR FLOODING AREN'T FAVORABLE FOR HYDROLOGY CONCERNS TO
BE HIGH AT THIS TIME, BUT WITH A RELATIVELY HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT IN
PLACE AND WEAK H85-H300 FLOW IN PLACE, AN AREA OR TWO COULD SEE A
QUICK 1-2" OR RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS THAT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF INSTANCE OF NUISANCE PONDING AND AREAL TYPE
RESPONSE TO THE MOISTURE. PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH THIS DAY AND HALF OR SO
STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ANY RAINFALL MUCH NEEDED AND WELCOME ACROSS
THE AREA.
THE MODIFIED AIRMASS CHANGE GRADUALLY TAKES PLACE AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS
THE AREA WITH OFF AND ON LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS WELL. BY
END OF NEXT WEEK, THERE COULD BE YET ANOTHER SLIGHT WARM UP WITH A
BROAD RIDGE SETTING BACK UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
THE TERMINALS REMAIN AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. TRENDS WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE REGION AND HELPING PUSH STORMS EAST
APPEAR TO BE SLOWER OVERALL. THUS, HAVE PUSHED BACK THE ONSET
TIMES FOR ANY POTENTIAL STORMS TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS TO MID-
MORNING AND LATER FROM WEST TO EAST. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BUT SOME STORMS MAY CAUSE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS BUT THIS
IS MOSTLY DEPENDENT ON WHEN AND WHERE STORMS BEGIN TO COLLAPSE
WHICH IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOSTLY HIGH STORM BASES
SO TEMPORARY VIS RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTUAL
INDIVIDUAL STORMS APPEAR TO BE THE FACTOR IN CAUSING LESS THAN
VFR CONDITIONS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...DRAKE
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