707
FXUS63 KTOP 171953
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
253 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ON AND OFF PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS LOW, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH STORMS.
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, THEN DAILY CHANCES (20-40%)
ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONAL THE REST OF THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
A SLOW-MOVING AND BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN IT HAS LED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT HAS BEEN WASHED OUT BY THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP, BUT CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN WESTERN KS
AS OF 18-19Z. RAIN COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY DECREASED ACROSS OUR AREA
SINCE THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN VORTICITY LOBE MOVED NORTH, BUT PARTS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS HAVE SEEN ENOUGH CLEARING TO DEVELOP ADDITIONAL
ELEVATED STORMS. CAMS ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT COVERAGE OF
REDEVELOPING STORMS IN OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IF
SKIES CAN CLEAR OUT AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH, A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS COULD FORM. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 20-30 KTS
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY 6-6.5 C/KM, SO NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
MUCH SEVERE WEATHER, BUT WITHIN ANY POCKETS OF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY, CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT TO COLLAPSE AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW AROUND 1000 J/KG OF
DCAPE AS WELL.
RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE NEXT VORT MAX
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. CAMS HAVEN'T BEEN
PARTICULARLY CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING AND THEY VARY IN COVERAGE AS
WELL. THE HRRR IS THE MOST ROBUST SOLUTION BRINGING A BATCH OF
STORMS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. CONSENSUS KEEPS SCATTERED STORMS AROUND
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO TODAY, SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES DON'T LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, BUT THE SFC FRONT SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON, DECREASING WHAT LIMITED SEVERE
RISK THERE WOULD'VE BEEN ANYWAY.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BRING A BREAK FROM THE CLOUDS AND RAIN AS THE WAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SMALL POPS DO RETURN TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING A STRONG UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL US BY TUESDAY, BUT THERE IS
LARGE VARIATION ON THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THAT SYSTEM,
LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONAL THURSDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK, BUT
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ENSEMBLES HAVE A WIDER RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES AS WE GET INTO MID-WEEK DUE TO THE INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LARGER SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
(ESPECIALLY TIMING) BEING THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD. RAIN
HAS BEEN DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
AND THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE AREA
STAYING DRY. IF SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH, A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD
REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE WOULD BE TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A MENTION IN TAFS. BETTER CHANCES COME OVERNIGHT, BUT
CAMS AREN'T VERY CONSISTENT IN TIMING ANY IMPACTS TO TAF SITES,
SO HAVE GONE WITH PROB30 TO HONE IN ON THE BEST TIME PERIOD.
WINDS LOOK LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES, BUT SHOULD BE MAINLY
SOUTHERLY.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...PICHA
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