805
FXUS63 KTOP 181136
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
636 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-A SERIES OF ATMOSPHERIC WAVES AND STORM SYSTEMS IS KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES IN MUCH OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST.
-THE FIRST ROUNDS OF RAIN WILL OCCUR TODAY. A FEW STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
-TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AFTER A WARM
STRETCH OF LATE SUMMER WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
A FEW ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SIT AND SPIN NORTH OF THE AREA. ONE ROUND IS ONGOING AT 09Z
ACROSS FAR EASTERN KS. THE NEXT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN KS AS A TROUGH AXIS ROTATES AROUND THE
MAIN LOW. WITH THAT, CHANCES INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND
MIDDAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW STORMS
COULD THEN DEVELOP IN EASTERN KS NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. IF STORMS MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON, SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WIND COULD OCCUR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM A FEW
SHORT-TERM MODELS, INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW AROUND 1500
J/KG OF CAPE AND BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR.
THE CURRENT QPF FROM THESE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN HAS MOST OF
THE AREA RECEIVING CLOSE TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL. SCATTERED
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. DAYTIME HOURS
FRIDAY LOOK DRY WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MORE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (30-50%) RETURN TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A SIMILAR SETUP COULD
LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCES
CURRENTLY RANGING BETWEEN 30% TO 60%, THE HIGHER CHANCES IN FAR
EASTERN KS. A FEW LONG RANGE MODELS THEN AGREE ON A STOUT UPPER
LOW MOVING SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND OVER KS BY NEXT
TUESDAY. IF THAT SOLUTION VERIFIES, IT WILL LEAD TO MORE RAIN
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST MAY
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING.
RAIN SHOULD EXIT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10KTS OUTSIDE OF STORMS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TEEFEY
AVIATION...TEEFEY
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