255
FXUS63 KTOP 070828
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
328 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS ENDING THIS MORNING WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
RETURNING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
- NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COMES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN A JET
STREAK THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK TO NORTHERN KANSAS.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, A SURFACE TROUGH HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO
CENTRAL MO AND EASTERN OK WITH THE 850MB TROUGH AXIS LAGGING A BIT
BEHIND, STILL IN CENTRAL KANSAS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE 850MB BOUNDARY WITH HELP FROM THE JET STREAK ALOFT HAS
AGAIN LED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS STRETCHING FROM
NORTHEASTERN KS TO SOUTHWESTERN KS. SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS,
POSSIBLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID
MORNING HOURS TODAY WITH CHANCES DECREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE 850MB TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS MOVES IN BEHIND HELPING TO
CLEAR OUT CLOUD COVER IN NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE
AFTERNOON TODAY. WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY
THE AFTERNOON TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S.
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLED OVER EASTERN KANSAS INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LEADING TO A NICE, FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THE SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL
RIDGES SLIDE EAST AND RETURNS FLOW BACK TO THE SOUTH. WEAK MID-LEVEL
ENERGY ADVECTING OUT OF NEBRASKA PAIRED WITH A NOCTURNAL LLJ ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS MAY LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING,
BUT MOISTURE SEEMS FAIRLY LIMITED, SO CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 15% AT
THIS TIME. A SIMILAR SET UP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAY
PLAY OUT AS THE LLJ SHIFTS INTO EASTERN KANSAS. SOME ELEVATED
SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP, BUT AGAIN, CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH
(~10%). OUTSIDE OF THIS, A DRY AND WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS DEEPENS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO OVER THE
WEEKEND AS OUR NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS. DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD RETURN GUSTY AND WARM CONDITIONS
BY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID
80S. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL IS HINTING AT THIS LARGE TROUGH
ENTERING THE CENTRAL US BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE
OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND PERHAPS ANOTHER AIRMASS CHANGE. THIS
COULD HELP SPELL AN END TO THIS WARM START TO OCTOBER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
LIFR AND IFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY AT KTOP AND KFOE. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME THUNDER WITH PRECIPITATION, BUT MOST WILL BE WITHOUT. CIGS
BEGIN TO RAISE TO LOW-END MVFR AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE WITH
LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN THE LATER MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
NORTHERLY WINDS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GRIESEMER
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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