514
FXUS63 KTOP 081128
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
628 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES PREVAIL TODAY AND THURSDAY, THEN A
WARMING TREND ENSUES INTO THIS WEEKEND.
- LOW-END RAIN CHANCES (10%) COME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS;
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY
BETTER RAIN CHANCES (20%) ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 08Z THIS
MORNING, AS WE SIT BETWEEN A DEPARTING WAVE TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIAN COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY, WHICH HAS LED TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S.
HAVEN'T SEEN MUCH EVIDENCE OF FOG YET, BUT GIVEN THE SETUP AND TD
DEPRESSIONS OF A DEGREE OR TWO, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THE TYPICAL
FOG PRONE AREAS IN LOW-LYING SPOTS SEE A BIT OF GROUND FOG AROUND
SUNRISE. WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC HIGH TODAY,
KEEPING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S.
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING, A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION LOOKS TO
BE JUST ENOUGH TO DEVELOP LEE SFC TROUGHING IN EASTERN CO, AND A LLJ
ALSO LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN KS. ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SPOTTY SHOWERS IN CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT, PUSHING
INTO EASTERN KS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
IS MOISTURE, AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR BELOW 850MB.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED WITH EASTERN EXTENT AS WELL, THOUGH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE A BIT BETTER TOWARDS CENTRAL KS. DECIDED TO
ADD SPRINKLES ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP. FROM
THERE, UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS, LEADING
TO A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS REACH THE LOW 70S EAST TO
AROUND 80 IN CENTRAL KS THURSDAY, WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA
LOOKING TO REACH THE 80S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS ONE
OTHER BRIEF, LOW-END CHANCE OF RAIN IN FAR EASTERN KS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THAT IS WELL
NORTHEAST OF US PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, SO THE BETTER
FORCING WOULD BE FAVORED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
WE TRANSITION TOWARDS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH EJECTS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
ANY EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE FLOW COULD LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA, BUT LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THEIR PLACEMENT
THIS FAR OUT KEEPS POPS LOW (~20%) AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
SOME GROUND FOG MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VSBY AT TOP AT TIMES EARLY
THIS PERIOD, BUT SHOULD BURN OFF AFTER AN HOUR OR SO.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH LIGHT SE WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A VERY LOW RAIN CHANCE LATE IN THE
PERIOD - TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAFS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...PICHA
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