053
FXUS63 KTOP 081922
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
222 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
- THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
- WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON THE 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVED ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE OBS HAD HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WI THAT RIDGED INTO CENTRAL KS. MID LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION HAS CAUSED A CLOUD DECK TO EXPAND OVER CENTRAL KS AND
INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST KS.
IN THE SHORT TERM, OR THROUGH FRIDAY, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
PROGGED TO FAVOR CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LITTLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER A WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE RAP AND NAM HAVE HAD A PERSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
ISENTROPIC LIFT TONIGHT, BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. AS A
RESULT ANY GUIDANCE THAT DEVELOPS QPF IS PRETTY SPOTTY, INCLUDING
THE CAMS THAT ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE GOOD SIGNAL
FOR LIFT FROM THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES, HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP THROUGH THE EARLY AND MID MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
THE SIGNAL FOR LIFT PERSISTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BETTER ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THETA-E
ADVECTION INCREASES MOISTURE AND STEEPENS LAPSE RATES. AND THE QPF
SIGNAL IS A LITTLE STRONGER OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KS FROM
MORE OF THE MODELS. THEREFORE HAVE SOME 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE POPS
WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 30KT TO 40KT WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG, BUT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY ONLY BE AROUND 20KT. SO CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE CONDITIONAL BUT THAT IS NOT TO SAY THERE COULD BE
A STRONG UPDRAFT OR TWO FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER RIDGING AND A RETURN
OF MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO TREND WARMER WITH HIGH IN THE LOWER 80S FRIDAY.
THERE ISN'T EXPECTED TO BE MUCH CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND THE MEAN WESTERLIES
DISPLACED NORTH. STILL MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW LEVEL
JET TO NOSE INTO NORTHEAST KS SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME THETA-E
ADVECTION. HAVE LEFT POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT FOR NOW, BUT IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS THESE POPS MAY
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED HIGHER. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 80 TO THE MIDDLE 80S.
BY NEXT WEEK, MODELS DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WEST AND THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. NOT
SURPRISINGLY, THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A WIDER RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES
AND LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST. THERE REMAINS A
SIGNAL FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO LIFT NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY THAT COULD BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD FOCUS SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MONDAY MORNING. THE NBM HAS SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. HAVE STUCK WITH THE
BLENDED FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE ENSEMBLES SHOW THE
LARGER SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH CIGS MAINLY BETWEEN 7
AND 10KFT. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME STRATOCU TO FORM IN THE 3 TO 5KFT LAYER. SOME ELEVATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITHIN A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. AT
THIS TIME SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ISOLATED AND THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
AT A TERMINAL IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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