294
FXUS63 KTOP 091832
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
132 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MOST PLACES REMAIN DRY TODAY, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
- EASTERN KS SEES A 20-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK DUE TO RAIN CHANCES
(20-30%) RETURNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
UPPER RIDGING STILL DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING WHILE A DEEP LOW SITS JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND
IS NOW CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. THIS LEAVES
US IN BETWEEN THAT HIGH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE SIGNAL FOR VERTICAL ASCENT
BASED ON ISENTROPIC SURFACES LOOKS TO BE AT ITS BEST FROM NOW (09Z)
THROUGH THE MORNING, AND THEN WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
CAMS AS A WHOLE APPEAR TO HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON SPOTTY SHOWERS
THIS MORNING, THE HRRR HAS STILL GONE BACK AND FORTH ON HOW MUCH
COVERAGE IT WANTS TO GENERATE AND HAS TRENDED A BIT LATER IN THE
MORNING. THE 00Z TOP RAOB SHOWED A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE BETWEEN
ABOUT 700-800MB WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR BELOW THAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
THROUGH THIS MORNING SHOW A SIMILAR STORY, WITH PERHAPS A SMALL
IMPROVEMENT IN MOISTURE DEPTH TOWARD MIDDAY IF ANYTHING. STILL THINK
A STRAY SHOWER ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY IS LIKELY BRIEF.
OVERALL, MOST PLACES STAY DRY TODAY WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS
LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S EAST TO LOW 80S WEST. LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT, A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED LLJ DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
STATE, WHICH PLACES AN AREA OF SPEED CONVERGENCE OVER EASTERN KS.
THIS WOULD SEEM TO PRESENT A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN, AND AS SUCH
HAVE MAINTAINED 20-40% POPS IN EASTERN KS. HOWEVER, CAMS KEEP THE
BULK OF ANY SPOTTY SHOWERS OR STORMS EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOME
VARIATION IN HOW FAR WEST THE COVERAGE SPREADS INTO OUR AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON'T SHOW MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, BUT THE HRRR DOES HAVE GREATER ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH 25-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THIS COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS, BUT WOULD BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE ACTIVITY FORMING FAR ENOUGH WEST INTO OUR AREA. ANY RAIN THAT
DOES MOVE THROUGH SHOULD EXIT MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE HELP OF
AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH. BETWEEN THE RIDGE ALOFT AND GREATER
INSOLATION, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER INTO THE
80S.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE
REMAINING WARM. A SUBTLE PERTURBATION ROUNDING THE RIDGE LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST TO PRECLUDE
RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME, BUT CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP NORTHERN AREAS A
BIT COOLER IN THE 70S COMPARED TO 80S ELSEWHERE. WE TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH TO OUR
WEST HELPS TO PUSH THE RIDGE SOUTHWARD. THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH OF
A SIGNAL FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY AND PUSH AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS BRINGS A 20-30% CHANCE FOR RAIN AND COULD DROP
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE 70S FOR MOST. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE DECREASES
THEREAFTER AS MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO OUR
SOUTH, LEADING TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE PLACEMENT OF ANY EMBEDDED
WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURE RANGES
IN THE ENSEMBLE DATA ARE RATHER LARGE FROM MONDAY ONWARD, WITH
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN EACH
DAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
MVFR CIGS HAVE BEGUN TO SCATTER OUT AND WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER
FURTHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEYOND THAT, WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10
MPH AROUND 6-7 PM. ADDED A PROB30 FOR THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDER AT KTOP AND KFOE AROUND 4AM-8AM FRIDAY MORNING.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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