689
FXUS63 KTOP 100935
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
435 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
THROUGH FAR EASTERN KS THIS MORNING.
- WARM AND MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH SMALL
RAIN CHANCES (20-30%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STILL DEPICTS A RIDGE INFLUENCING MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, WITH A SMALL LOW MOVING THROUGH
ONTARIO AND A LARGER LOW SPINNING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE
SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOTED IN MN WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NE. THE LLJ IS BRINGING THE STRONGEST LIFT
AND WAA INTO SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO, WHICH IS WHERE THE MOST
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW HOURS. SO FAR OUR
AREA HAS ONLY BEEN CLIPPED BY AN ISOLATED SHOWER/WEAK STORM IN BROWN
COUNTY. THE PRIME AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH MO THIS MORNING, AND MAY EXTEND FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
IMPACT FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND 12-
13Z. THE FV3 HAS RAIN MISSING THE AREA ENTIRELY, BUT MOST OTHER CAMS
HAVE AT LEAST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR AREA FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE
SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT WILL DO LITTLE IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
FOR MOST, WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS NEARBY.
A SUBTLE WAVE ROUNDING THE RIDGE LOOKS TO PASS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
DURING THAT TIME BUT KEEPING US OUT OF THE PATH OF ANY RAIN CHANCES.
FAR NORTHEAST KS MAY STAY IN THE 70S WHERE CLOUDS LINGER LONGER
WHILE MOST EVERYONE ELSE SEES HIGHS IN THE 80S ONCE AGAIN. SUNDAY IS
THE WARMEST DAY AHEAD, AS A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INDUCES A LEE SFC TROUGH AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
US. THIS WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HELP TO BOOST
TEMPERATURES TO THE 80S AREA-WIDE. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST RAIN CHANCE (20-30%). MOST OF THIS LOOKS TO BE POST-
FRONTAL WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, AND RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DWINDLES FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO LOW
PREDICTABILITY IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT IN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE AS IT GETS PUSHED SOUTH. THE MOST RECENT
NBM HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON POPS TUESDAY ONWARD, BUT TEMPERATURE
RANGES ARE STILL LARGE, INDICATIVE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST. THINK RAIN CHANCES, ALBEIT SMALL, ARE STILL A REASONABLE
POSSIBILITY UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEARER WHERE THOSE WAVES WILL TRAVEL.
FOR NOW, EXPECT A COOLDOWN MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, AND PERHAPS A SLIGHT WARMUP MID TO LATE WEEK
PENDING CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. MAIN THING TO WATCH IS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TS, WHICH ARE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN IA AND FORECAST
TO DEVELOP INTO NORTHERN MO AND FAR EASTERN KS. BETTER FORCING
IS NORTHEAST OF TERMINALS AND GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON WHETHER
ANYTHING DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO IMPACT TAF SITES. DECIDED
TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW, BUT IF ANY PRECIP DOES MOVE
THROUGH, IT WOULD BE MOST PROBABLE AT TOP/FOE FOR A BRIEF TIME
BETWEEN 11-13Z. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO SHIFT TO
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY AROUND 17-18Z.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...PICHA
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