714
FXUS63 KTOP 301003
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
503 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNRISE INTO MID-MORNING.
- PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING THROUGH SUNRISE BUT DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN A
30% CHANCE.
- FROST CONDITIONS MAY SETUP FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO GO WITH HEADLINES AT THIS TIME DUE
TO POTENTIAL CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA.
- DRY AND COOL THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
A GLOOMY PATTERN HAS GIVEN WAY TO A DRYING TREND WITH MANY NICE FALL
DAYS AHEAD INTO THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
EARLY THIS MORNING, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER EXTENDING THROUGH
THE APPALACHAINS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A WEAK RIDGE IS MOVING
OVERHEAD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ANOTHER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHER PACIFIC REGION. AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE BAJA
REGION LOOKS TO HOLD STRONG THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A THE RIDGE
AXIS BUILDING THROUGH CENTRAL INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KS AREAS. SOME
AREAS UNDER THE FREEZE WARNING ARE ALREADY AT 32 DEGREES AND LOOK ON
TRACK TO FALL BELOW THAT. EASTERN AREAS HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHER
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S AND DEPRESSIONS ARE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO
OF THAT AT MOST LOCATIONS SO FROST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK GENERALLY IN
THE EAST SITTING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW SPOTS IN LOW-LYING
AREAS ARE SEEING SLIGHTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY ALREADY WITH BR BEING
REPORTED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN KS.
PATCHY FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING FOG OVER SOME NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS
LIKELY SETUP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE. CHANCES FOR
DENSE FOG REMAIN BELOW 30% SO ANY WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
SEEM UNLIKELY.
FROST FOR FRIDAY MORNING IS LOWER CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW AS NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN PLAINS WITH PACIFIC
SPILLOVER MOISTURE BRINGING MID TO HIGH LEVEL SATURATION IN PLAY.
THIS COULD RESULT IN CLOUDS JUST THICK ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE FROST RANGE AND IF THE LOWER BL
REMAINS JUST MIXED ENOUGH THEN THAT IS ANOTHER FACTOR WORKING
AGAINST CONFIDENCE IS A SOLID FROST SETUP FOR THE LAST TRADITIONAL
DAY OF THE GROWING SEASON. THUS, HAVE OPTED TO ALLOW THE DAY
FORECAST CREW TIME TO LOOK AT THE 12Z TRENDS IN THE DATA TO
DETERMINE IF ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY IS WARRANTED FRIDAY MORNING.
A WEAK ALBERTA LOW SYSTEM SLIPS DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT LIMITED MOISTURE LIMITS IMPACTS
ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND
LIKELY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES SOUTH OF THE
AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH IS WHERE THE
CONCENSUS FORECAST SETS UP A MORE ACTIVE REGION OF PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE MODIFIED COLD FRONT. THE PASSAGE HERE CONTINUES TO LOOK
DRY FOR SATURDAY.
A BROAD WESTERN RIDGE SETS UP INTO SUNDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY RISING HEIGHTS GIVING WAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR
HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
EXPECT VARYING VIS OBSCURATION THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z AT ALL
TERMINALS MAINLY IN THE IFR CATEGORY BUT COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO
THE LIFR CATEGORY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ011-KSZ012-
KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...DRAKE
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