874
FXUS63 KTOP 301726
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1226 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST CONDITIONS MAY SETUP FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO GO WITH HEADLINES AT THIS TIME DUE TO
POTENTIAL CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA.
- DRY AND COOL THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
A GLOOMY PATTERN HAS GIVEN WAY TO A DRYING TREND WITH MANY NICE FALL
DAYS AHEAD INTO THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
EARLY THIS MORNING, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER EXTENDING THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A WEAK RIDGE IS
MOVING OVERHEAD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHER PACIFIC REGION. AN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE BAJA REGION LOOKS TO HOLD STRONG THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A THE RIDGE
AXIS BUILDING THROUGH CENTRAL INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KS AREAS. SOME
AREAS UNDER THE FREEZE WARNING ARE ALREADY AT 32 DEGREES AND LOOK ON
TRACK TO FALL BELOW THAT. EASTERN AREAS HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHER
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S AND DEPRESSIONS ARE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO
OF THAT AT MOST LOCATIONS SO FROST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK GENERALLY IN
THE EAST SITTING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW SPOTS IN LOW-LYING
AREAS ARE SEEING SLIGHTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY ALREADY WITH BR BEING
REPORTED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN KS.
PATCHY FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING FOG OVER SOME NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS
LIKELY SETUP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE. CHANCES FOR
DENSE FOG REMAIN BELOW 30% SO ANY WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
SEEM UNLIKELY.
FROST FOR FRIDAY MORNING IS LOWER CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW AS NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN PLAINS WITH PACIFIC
SPILLOVER MOISTURE BRINGING MID TO HIGH LEVEL SATURATION IN PLAY.
THIS COULD RESULT IN CLOUDS JUST THICK ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE FROST RANGE AND IF THE LOWER BL
REMAINS JUST MIXED ENOUGH THEN THAT IS ANOTHER FACTOR WORKING
AGAINST CONFIDENCE IS A SOLID FROST SETUP FOR THE LAST TRADITIONAL
DAY OF THE GROWING SEASON. THUS, HAVE OPTED TO ALLOW THE DAY
FORECAST CREW TIME TO LOOK AT THE 12Z TRENDS IN THE DATA TO
DETERMINE IF ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY IS WARRANTED FRIDAY MORNING.
A WEAK ALBERTA LOW SYSTEM SLIPS DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT LIMITED MOISTURE LIMITS IMPACTS
ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND
LIKELY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES SOUTH OF THE
AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH IS WHERE THE
CONCENSUS FORECAST SETS UP A MORE ACTIVE REGION OF PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE MODIFIED COLD FRONT. THE PASSAGE HERE CONTINUES TO LOOK
DRY FOR SATURDAY.
A BROAD WESTERN RIDGE SETS UP INTO SUNDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY RISING HEIGHTS GIVING WAY TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR
HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS WEAKEN
BY 22Z. CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LOW FOR TONIGHT, BUT
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
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