940
FXUS63 KTOP 301922
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
222 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR AREAS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS THAT HAVE YET TO EXPERIENCE
FREEZING CONDITIONS.
- DRY AND COOL THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING UP SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
SUNSHINE HAS RETURNED WITH SURFACE RIDGING IN CONTROL OF THE REGION!
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESIDES ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, THE OVERALL AIRMASS REMAINS COOL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S. ELEVATED WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE ALONG WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN WAS OBSERVED LAST NIGHT, BUT STILL SUPPORTIVE OF
FROST FORMATION. THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCED
FREEZING CONDITIONS LAST NIGHT, BUT AREAS FROM HOLTON TO HERINGTON
REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROST CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT, HAVE ISSUED A
FROST ADVISORY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE YET TO EXPERIENCE FREEZING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE OF THE
SEASON.
A POTENT CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE US ON
FRIDAY, SHUNTING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED, SUFFICIENT LIFT IN SATURATED MID-LEVELS
COULD GENERATE LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CHANCES ARE
CURRENTLY LESS THAN 15%, BUT RECENT CAM RUNS ARE HIGHLIGHTING THIS
POTENTIAL. SUBSEQUENT UPDATES MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN, MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. LOWS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 30S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY AROUND 50
DEGREES. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TOWARDS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. HIGHS WARM A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY, REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S BY MONDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
FURTHER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BEFORE YET ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS WEAKEN
BY 22Z. CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LOW FOR TONIGHT, BUT
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
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